Topic: Zizzeus Guide to AGoT 2nd Edition
Posted: 2017-Oct-03 22:19
An experienced Lannister that is allied to GJ can almost always defend BW (unless you have some serious help from Tyrell).
It has been a year since I published the guide, and I can agree with this. An experienced Lannister can usually hold BW, at least until:
a) Web of Lies, although Bara has his own problems then
b) Tyrell helps remove support with QoT, which isn't uncommon
c) GJ starts his stab
Considering all of those options, plus the option that you're not playing against an experienced Lannister

there are still good chances for Bara to take Blackwater. We can disagree about the value of this territory but it doesn't change the points above.
Patchfacing Viper is a bad idea unless you have no choice, since you should never want to be doraned, in an experienced game of course.
Who cares if you get Doran'd in the first or second round, before the clash? You lose one star which goes to your 'friend' Tyrell, or you lose throne improving Stannis. Usually in this case, without Doran and Viper Martell just sits there trying to get his cards back and scrape up some tokens, since his first clash positions are usually pretty bad and without those two cards he should be concerned about invasion.
In my opinion, the priority should be allying with Lanni by giving him BW. I remember many examples of bara vs lanni fights that just went on and on and were terrible for both sides. Lanni and Baratheon should be allied for the sake of both houses.
If the south is allied against you then by all means promise BW to Lanni if needed, since you certainly can't fight on three fronts. But I don't see how always allying with Lanni is a good strategy. Surely the political situation might favour war in some cases?
Also, Lanni should never try to take KL and CCP (unless very late game, or there is a gang-bang against bara) since bara can just retake his castles..
Agreed, although I think I mentioned that the intention isn't really to hold CcP, just to prevent raids on HH support/CP orders. And taking KL is more about denying tokens/muster points to Bara, even for one round. Since Lanni can grow troops faster, he can often win the war of attrition here.
I think that BW is valuable to both players. In this sense it's sort of like the Reach and Princes Path, or the third sea around the Bay area. When one player has it, things are just a bit unbalanced. Sometimes it's worth the price for the imbalance (ie. Tyrell usually doesn't contest PP because early was can go very badly) and other times it isn't, which is how I view BW. If everyone's home territories were perfectly balanced I don't think this game would be nearly as interesting.
Anyway, thanks for the points. Always nice to hear how experienced players think. Does this mean you agree with EVERYTHING ELSE in the guide?
