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Mr_you
AhmdElonsndME2MarsRYvr- 1 h 26 min ago

Any unrated live?

AhmdElonsndME2MarsRYvr- 14 hours ago

Sure , unrated one's*

AhmdElonsndME2MarsRYvr- 14 hours ago

Mens underwear one's where u win or die??

AhmdElonsndME2MarsRYvr- 14 hours ago

Any host free live games??

Irishadam2 17 hours ago

2/3

Irishadam2 18 hours ago

1/3

JaqenHghar0 18 hours ago

3p lice someone?

Phobey 19 hours ago

i was unable as im in a game already, round 9 now, will do several once we finishthe game

AhmdElonsndME2MarsRYvr- 19 hours ago

Where'?

Phobey 19 hours ago

sure 3p ?

AhmdElonsndME2MarsRYvr- 19 hours ago

Maybe some host free live to??

AhmdElonsndME2MarsRYvr- 20 hours ago

Any live games?

Lord Crook 21 hours ago

2/3

Lord Crook 21 hours ago

3 live up

JaqenHghar0 22 hours ago

i missed it 3 times man

Lord Crook 22 hours ago

3 live up

Lord Crook 22 hours ago

were ready

Lord Crook 22 hours ago

fedda?

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3p live is up

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Sovereign...? Naaaah!



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Wellerson Gaiozo
Knight

Posts: 66
Games: 132
Rank Points: 638
Member since: 2016-Nov-15

Topic: The KC’s tournament and some stats analysis
Posted: 2017-Nov-08 20:50
I made some stats analyis on KC’s tournaments games to understand how the game works in high level, raise some old discussions and find some patterns between the houses. First of all, I’d liked to use all the 36 games, but it would be a long time until they get finished. So I selected the 24 games already finished in KC.

First, here are the stats about the wins per houses:

Wins per house
B - 5
G - 6
L - 4
M - 3
S - 4
T - 2
We can see, Tyrell has only 2 wins. But there’s na interesting point. Greyjoy, Baratheon and Lannister are the houses with most wins. But where does the win of each house come from?

I also think an analysis based on average points per game is more concrete. Because it’s possible for a house to win no games and yet finish all of them in second. The same way, one house can win 10 games and finish 14 games in last.  So I made the stats about the average points per game.

Average points per game
B - 7,3
G - 7,8
L - 7,2
T - 5,8
M - 8,3
S - 6,6

An interesting fact we can see is that Martell has more points per game, but yet few wins. I think it’s because of his defensive position, that is hard to penetrate and hard to break through.

To go deeper, I sort the games by 3 criteria. They are: If  Greyjoy attacked Stark first instead of Lannister (West Ally), what was the last round and if the game was finished with 7 castles or not (The Seven).

West Alliance

First, we see the stats about how the West aliance affected the game. There were 4 games where the West was in war and 20 where they were allies.

Average points per game / West alliance
   No   Yes
B  6,5  7,5
G  9,5  7,4
L  2,0  8,2
T  5,0  5,9
M  9,5  8,1
S  9,5  6,0

As we can see the game was well balanced when the West was ally. But when they were at war there was a huge diference. Lannister did not have a chance to fight. We can see the stats below about how many castles Lannister finished when the West was ally and when was not. In other words, everytime there was an early war between Lannister and GJ, the lions were crushed. Stark also, was the house which benefits the most when west is not ally, because of the war against GJ.

Average Lannister's castles on last round / West Alliance
No   0,25
Yes  3,60

Another importante thing is when the round is finished in West aliance.  We can see the game lasted until last round when there was the western aliance.

Last round / West alliance
No   10
Yes  8,7

The Seven

Here are the stats about the average points when the game is finished with 7 castles. We can see Stark was much stronger when the games lasted until last round. On the other hand, Bara was stronger when the seven happened.  Bara had 4 wins with the seven and Stark 4 without seven castles. Tyrell also only won with the seven.

Average points per game / The Seven
   No   Yes
B  5,8  9,1
G  7,7  7,8
L  6,3  8,2
T  5,5  6,0
M  8,3  8,4
S  8,3  4,5


Wins per house / The Seven
  No  Yes
B  1  4
G  4  2
L  2  2
M  2  1
S  4  0
T  0  2

Conclusions

By the stats of KC’s we can understand how the game works in high level. We can conclude the top players prefer an west aliance, because the game is more balanced when it happens. When there’s no alliance, GJ wins the war everytime and Lannister does not have a chance. Also, Stark is the house which benefits the most in the western war.

On the other hand, Bara’s win comes from an conquest of seven castles and Stark’s win comes from the last round.  Martel is a strong house, but can’t win many times. We can see the weaker house in high level is Tyrell, which few points per game.

I just mined the data and brought some stats, guys. Now, what do you think?
ElPopelos
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds

Posts: 3,874
Games: 179
Rank Points: 1,271
Member since: 2013-Feb-01

Topic: The KC’s tournament and some stats analysis
Posted: 2017-Nov-08 21:35
Tyrell is in an awkward spot with a strong Lannister. Beating Martell is almost impossible and involves high costs because of Doran and Arianne, going against Bara without going on Lannister aswell is impossible and going on Lannister is pretty hard since he will be focused completely on land.


I myself absolutely dislike Martell in 6player-games since its very hard to get out of that corner. And if he gets out if it, he will often get backstabbed by the other house.
And with stale Martell and stale Lannister, the game overall becomes pretty stale with Stark and Gj fighting, bara waiting for his chance to backstab, Lannister trying to survive and tyrell and Martell just sitting there doing nothing, waiting for a small chance.


Folly99
Battle Commander

Posts: 332
Games: 257
Rank Points: 1,337
Member since: 2017-Jul-25

Topic: The KC’s tournament and some stats analysis
Posted: 2017-Nov-08 21:47
You can clearly see that a western alliance make a more unpredictabel game, and more players have a chance.  It also shows that Even though the players prefer a western alliance, it is clearly better for greyjoy to go to war. Its over 2 point better for greyjoy to go to war, i dont see why greyjoy would want a western alliance


shimicamaky
Master Stonemason

Posts: 20
Games: 206
Rank Points: 68
Member since: 2016-Jun-26

Topic: The KC’s tournament and some stats analysis
Posted: 2017-Nov-08 22:35
Nice work pulling out information. Did you by any chance look at Baratheon openings? My opinion is they influence the game a lot. Depending on their first turn moves, in anticipation of westeros cards, they can change course of the game almost as much as west in peace/war.
I will even go on a limp and accuse non muster anticipating opening as a biggest reason for bad Tyrell statistics. Almost all Tyrells because of unlikely muster/clash adopt growing strong as lifestyle. When they could, with good chance of muster and high sword, play more like Greyjoy and hit hard not to win but to inflict enough long term damage so then they can eventually overcome Martell.
South alliance as it stands now in the most games clearly favored Martell a lot more so why go with it ? Because you are forced in it. Without 2. turn muster non alliance will cost too much and will likely seal your fate.

In conclusion, for Tyrell to do better meta needs to change and I see no reason for this not to happen beacause Martell as this shows is not the flashiest, but certainly most consistently good house, so likely most houses would benefit in overall stats from south fighting probably even Tyrell. What do they have to lose anyway ? last place ...
ElPopelos
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds

Posts: 3,874
Games: 179
Rank Points: 1,271
Member since: 2013-Feb-01

Topic: The KC’s tournament and some stats analysis
Posted: 2017-Nov-08 22:40
One thing, we should absolutely NOT forget about those stats, is that they are heavily influenced by the rules we set up.

Because we decided to value points OVER wins, players arent really willed to take a risk, playing way more conservative than they might have in a different situation.


shimicamaky
Master Stonemason

Posts: 20
Games: 206
Rank Points: 68
Member since: 2016-Jun-26

Topic: The KC’s tournament and some stats analysis
Posted: 2017-Nov-08 23:06
How so ? If you are doing bad in one game your other needs to overperform after all it is death or glory only first person in group lives. So to win  analyze every game assign likely score to players calculate where all of them together get you and if it is not first. Pick one or more  games and make a push for more points in it. Rinse repeat until you are first then stabilize all games even ones you are losing badly.So only first is not takeing chances rest are and can count on this from others.
Here I go backseat driving again.
Wellerson Gaiozo
Knight

Posts: 66
Games: 132
Rank Points: 638
Member since: 2016-Nov-15

Topic: The KC’s tournament and some stats analysis
Posted: 2017-Nov-09 12:58
Its over 2 point better for greyjoy to go to war, i dont see why greyjoy would want a western alliance
I don't see why GJ would not attack Lannister too. I think we can make rules in some games, like the west cannot fight until round 3, or something like this to prevent this early war. I don't know if it's allowed to make these rules in the lobby room.
Harakon
Grandmaester of Reports

Posts: 3,634
Games: 903
Rank Points: 3,430
Member since: 2014-Aug-24

Topic: The KC’s tournament and some stats analysis
Posted: 2017-Nov-09 13:01
As game host you are pretty much allowed to set the rules you want. Otherwise south blocked games or team games would be impossible


Wellerson Gaiozo
Knight

Posts: 66
Games: 132
Rank Points: 638
Member since: 2016-Nov-15

Topic: The KC’s tournament and some stats analysis
Posted: 2017-Nov-09 13:07
Did you by any chance look at Baratheon openings? My opinion is they influence the game a lot. Depending on their first turn moves, in anticipation of westeros cards, they can change course of the game almost as much as west in peace/war.
No, I did not analysed the openings nor the events

Without 2. turn muster non alliance will cost too much and will likely seal your fate.

I think you are right. The south fight benefits much more Martell if a Muster doesn't come in 2 rounds. I think a preceding mustering would help Tyrell, but would help more Stark's development.
Wellerson Gaiozo
Knight

Posts: 66
Games: 132
Rank Points: 638
Member since: 2016-Nov-15

Topic: The KC’s tournament and some stats analysis
Posted: 2017-Nov-09 13:11
One thing, we should absolutely NOT forget about those stats, is that they are heavily influenced by the rules we set up.

Because we decided to value points OVER wins, players arent really willed to take a risk, playing way more conservative than they might have in a different situation.

You are right, but that's how the game is played here in the site. I think it's the best way to set the scores of the game. You have merit being on second. It's fair for all 6 players.


As game host you are pretty much allowed to set the rules you want. Otherwise south blocked games or team games would be impossible
Nice! I did not know  about that. Thank you! It will be very nice to test some variants

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