HOUSE CARDS

Greyjoy’s cards are as powerful as they are one-dimensional.  Balon wipes the floor with any other card head-to-head.  Victarion routinely plays as a 5 strength card, and it's not too outlandish for him to get up to 7 or 8.  Aeron provides a lot of flexibility, helping to not only defend against being baited into playing high cards against weak attacks, but also moving through your hand faster, getting those big hitters back quickly.  He’s expensive, and given that Greyjoy has only middling power production potential, that can become an issue.  But you still need to keep the premium cards handy, because Asha and Theon suck.

The good thing about these cards is that they are the best in the game at completing the basic task at hand: winning a battle.  What they lack is…anything else. They are glamor muscles.  They’re probably the worst at inflicting casualties, with Euron’s single sword being the only consistent threat.  And they are not any great shakes keeping their own units alive, with Asha’s ability being hindered by Thronemaster’s lack of an option to deny yourself support, and Dagmer still being fairly helpless against both Stark and Lannister’s biggest offensive guns.  Furthermore, they have no special abilities that amount to more than a bonus to combat strength.  No way to affect the opponent’s house card selection, their order placement, or track positions, as other houses can.  They win the battle, and then they sit and wait for the counterattack.

But again, they win most battles.  Which they need to, because they take more damage when they lose than they inflict when they win.

KEY CARDS:  Balon Greyjoy.  With the Valyrian Steel Blade, this sumbitch makes attacking you with less than a +4 combat strength advantage a futile gesture.  That's just absurd.  Victarion is similarly overpowered, but only on offense.  Balon is a powerful deterrent, but mind yourself against Lannister.  If Tyrion is still in the mix, it becomes risky to leave Balon as one of your last 2 cards, because he can pull a switcheroo and then you have to go through 6 more battles without the threat of him discouraging your opponents from getting tricky.

BOARD POSITION:

Excellent.  Sure, their “home” territories only consist of 4 land areas, which account for the standard 5 muster points, a lackluster 3 barrels and 2 crowns.  But that is bolstered by the proximity of Lannister’s lands.  I am counting Riverrun as a Lannister territory mainly because it goes to them if there is an alliance, but it is the most immediately and easily contested borderland in the game.  And it is a rich prize, even before you get to Lannisport and Harrenhall a single step away.  If Greyjoy is so inclined, there is nothing Lanni can do to stop them from taking it on the first round.  Furthermore, if you can take a single sea territory – which given GJ’s cards and starting positions, is also impossible for the opponent to stop if you go straight for it – you suddenly have direct sea access to 9 muster points, 6 barrels, and 3 crowns.  That is where much of the advantage that most attribute to their big, flashy cards actually comes from, imo.  No other house is so close to another’s core territories, let alone one they enjoy such immediate advantages over (see next post), on top of which that section of territory is far and away the most highly concentrated with riches on the board.

Even should Greyjoy choose to forego immediate gratification against Lannister, their small home territory still works to their immediate advantage, in that they can fill it entirely (give or take 1 sea area) on their opening marches, grabbing all the 5 MP, 3 supply and 2 crowns without risking a single battle, and also getting 2 tokens from CP.  In theory, Lannister and Bara can just about match that aggressive expansion, but to do so they’d have to forego the ability to immediately muster units and/or farm immediate tokens, making it more of a gamble on which Westeros cards will show up. Plus the territories they would take are not clustered as tightly together for centralized transport and support. And that’s talking about the conservative route; if Greyjoy goes for Riverrun, they can still get the 7 tokens and even more muster points, supply, and crowns.

KEY TERRITORIES:  Ironman Bay.  It’s possible to lose it and still defend Pyke, or retake it later on, but generally if you are losing the sea battle as Greyjoy, it means things are going very, very wrong.  DO NOT LEAVE IT OPEN on the first round if Lannister holds Riverrun.  Or any round where they have Riverrun and turn order advantage (same for Stark and Flint's Finger, should that situation arise).

Last edited by Ser Hodor on 2018-Aug-26 22:46, edited 2x in total

STARTING POSITIONS

Very Good.  They start without star orders, which is very bad. And also behind their neighbors when it comes to raiding and marching, which are significant setbacks.  But unlike the similarly poor Tyrell, they also begin with the blade, an extra ship advantage, and those beefy cards to win crucial early battles. That extra ship is especially useful, given how much territory the 2 sea areas adjoin. If Greyjoy can control the 7 lands directly accessible to Ironman and Golden Sound, it is considerably richer than all 11 of the more diffuse territories of the North put together.

SPECIAL/UNIQUE STRENGTHS

Fast starts.  As elaborated upon above, GJ’s highly concentrated lands, extra starting unit and Valyrian advantage mean that an early muster makes it an immediate monster, and can situate itself well for an immediate clash without forgoing any other opportunities.  Almost every house has Westeros cards they really do not want to see right off the bat; for Stark and Martell, it is Clash.  For Lannister it depends what opening they chose.  For Tyrell, it’s no action whatsoever and for Bara Web Of Lies and Supply tend to be bummers.  For Greyjoy, there shouldn’t be anything that counts as an immediate disaster. And once Lannisport falls, it is generally not much of a challenge to hold Sunset Sea, Golden Sound and Ironman Bay, making for a secure empire of 4 strongholds with bountiful supply and unraidable sea support for any and all incursions.

Raw Combat Strength. No one else can bring the brute force to bear on a single battle that Greyjoy can.


SPECIAL/UNIQUE WEAKNESSES

Fast starts.  The reason why more often than not, Greyjoy goes after Stark instead of pressing all those immediate advantages over Lannister is that conquering Lanni will not be enough to end the game.  And when you do it too quickly, it can have the effect of uniting the rest of the world against you, forcing you to fight 3v1 the entire back half of the game.  Going after Stark is slower, harder going, but if you do triumph in the North it is much harder for anyone to come to their aid and you have also eliminated the rival that would most easily compete on tiebreakers at the end. You are less likely to succeed in conquering Stark, but if you do, you are more likely to win the game.

No truly special abilities.  Only Aeron has any ability whatsoever to effect change outside of the embattled territory, and it’s both costly and not generally devastating when you do. This means that Greyjoy has to play a very straightforward game, and is vulnerable to fading down the stretch when other players have had time to set up big, elaborate moves that Greyjoy doesn't have any special defenses against.

Few Allies.  Your diplomatic options are Lannister and not much else. Even Baratheon, who theoretically shares all of your enemies while not competing for any of the same territory, isn't inclined to do you many favors, since you are the biggest threat to end the game quickly, before he can make any serious progress.  Your position and cards are so robust that you shouldn't need a lot of help, but it still can be an uphill fight to convince another house to come to your aid, even when you are legitimately beat down.

Last edited by Ser Hodor on 2018-Aug-26 22:51, edited 2x in total

EARLY STRATEGIC QUESTIONS

Do I go north, or do I go east?  The only truly bad decision is to play indecisively, trying to avoid a decision while your opponents use their ability to muster their own units to close the gap between them and your opening advantages.  Once in a blue moon, you’ll see a Greyjoy go go south to conquer Tyrell, but this is foolhardy.  West Summer Sea is 5x harder to take and hold than Golden Sound or Bay Of Ice - you can be raided, marched on or supported against by up to 3 houses, and you open yourself up to Doran besides.

As mentioned above, there are immediate rewards in the Westerlands, but a Northern campaign is more likely to be conclusive.  I generally start by asking Lanni as a precondition for alliance not to march into Riverrun on the first turn.  This is not a huge ask, since CP in Stoney Sept has its own merits. But it allows us both to demonstrate good faith while I take Seagard and Flint’s Finger and move the ship to Sunset Sea, getting a head start on assaulting Bay Of Ice while free from the threat that Lanni might muster their own ships in Ironman Bay with their turn order advantage.

As far as starting orders go, you will want to CP in Greywater Watch.  Sometimes people will march straight into Moat Cailin, which is admittedly distressing for Stark, but on balance I don’t think trading a single barrel for a single muster point is enough of an upgrade to justify foregoing the crucial early token advantage. On the flip side, you will sometimes see people CP in Pyke, and put out 2 sea marches. I see the appeal of securing sea areas ASAP, but I don’t tend to think that 1 extra token is worth foregoing the 2MP, barrel and crown at Seagard.  If you want to take a more conservative approach to power production, I would suggest taking Seagard
but leaving the footman behind in Pyke to continue to CP every turn.

If war with Lannister is on the menu, probably a support in Ironman is best, so that you can attack Riverrun as safely as possible. You don’t want to have to take your knight there, and leave him vulnerable to the Mountain when no muster/clash comes – he represents half your land forces at that point, so losing him is a disaster.

Last edited by Ser Hodor on 2018-Aug-26 22:53, edited 2x in total

Do you have these for all houses? It's really great.

Working on it. Almost done with Martell.

If stickying is a thing, these should be stickied.

Excellent read. You have my vote to include these in the sticky post on strategy guides.

Great text with some good details. Especially using diplomacy to take Sunset sea in round one is a great move. Speeding up the invasion of the north can be a breakthrough for Greyjoy: if muster comes up you can have Winterfell at your knees the next round. After all, you need to use the advantage of the Valyrian steel blade and extra ship early on as the time is your worst enemy as Greyjoy.

Against Lannister you mention using support in Ironmans bay in round one. Though this is seen more rarely, it is not a bad move. But you have to play other orders right because placing orders carelessly can actually cost you the game.
Support in IMB in first round comes with marching from Pyke port as well. Consolidating in Greywater (imo this is pretty much always the best option for that footman) and in port with march in Pyke and support in IMB leaves Lannister open to use the raven to play +1 support in Golden Sound. With better sea support Lannister gains more than you do so obviously even a raid would be better.

Lannister can do even worse with +1 march against your naval forces. +1 march in Golden sound does not sound so big a setback as experienced players tend to use it to take Sunset if they see Greyjoy is not marching in IMB, but if Lannister is also intending to take Riverrun with march from Lannisport you are facing the hardest time any Greyjoy can in the first round. This is because when Lannister assaults your navy they intend to win. You have to play high because your combat strength is 1 against 2. Losing Balon or Euron in the first round defending your home areas is something I would call an early setback, even if Lannister loses Tywin (though if they play Gregor it can be a relief to you in the future as the strongest deterrent from Lannister is gone). But the real problem with Lannister marching against you at sea is card baiting. As Ser Hodor points out, Greyjoy deck definitely is not a kill deck, so without a counterattack the only way to punish Lannister from his arrogancy is with Euron's single sword. And this can be fended off easily with The Hound - bait succesfull. Only way to come out on top in this situation is taking gamble and playing Theon and hoping that The Hound is played. Using the blade you win and you get away from Theon the Trash when Lannister loses his only towers. But gambling is still a risk as losing IMB is a disaster. Calling out the bluff with Aeron is costly as you lose the token you gain from consolidating in port and one in addition.

So the best option to go with supporting in IMB imo is march -1 in port. This negates the support option in Golden Sound from Lannister as you both have same sea support. It also gives you breathing room against +1 naval march because if you lose you can retreat to Sunset Sea (if Lannister uses Ser Gregor, too bad. At least he can't use it against your knight in Riverrun) and counterattack from port. This kind of story tends to end up in stalemate as far as house cards are considered as Lannister has to go strong to actually gain something and even then defeat awaits if Balon or Euron is used. Baiting is also much more difficult as you don't have as much to lose with counterattack up in your sleeve. So most times Lannister is discouraged to march after seeing the march order in port. In summary this kind of order placement keeps Lannister at his own bay, mobilizes your ships so they are ready for action the next round but on the downside you get only one token. Other big downside is that if Lannister plays the usual orders (CP in Stoney Sept and CP* in Lannisport) he still has room to go to Sunset or try baiting because the support in IMB does not matter as he is giving Riverrun to you uncontested. This is not a big problem but you still want to be the one pulling the strings as Greyjoy.

Although I prefer marching from port, I have to admit that CP in port is often the better option. If Lannister is not contesting you in Riverrun and IMB, which is not that uncommon, you gain more from CP. Even if Riverrun is contested you may gain more from CP. But if Lannister is consolidating in Stoney Sept you also want to have your ship consolidating power as not doing that will put you in disadvantage in the coming clash.

Against Lannister always the best option imo is to consolidate in port and Greywater when marching in Pyke and IMB, usually -1 placed to the ship. This puts you to seven tokens and gives you the initiative as well as the possibility to punish Lannister for his mistakes. Marching at sea keeps Golden Sound defending instead of supporting or taking Sunset and only a fool attacks Greyjoy fleet if they can take down the routed ship in Golden Sound with counterattack. If Lannister plays CP* in Lannisport and CP in Stoney Sept you have Riverrun for free and the option to push for Golden Sound using Balon. If Lannister does everything to hold Riverrun by placing +1 support in Stoney Sept, support at sea and marching from Lannisport you can't get anything from Lannister with this opening except a token advantage. Then it is time to ask for an alliance: with the same orders you can easily pivot towards north without losing anything. But against all other openings from Lannister this is very solid option.

I'm not alone thinking this as the best order set: statistics made by PPPPaco (don't know how to link it, just search the forum) state that this set is the most used AND has the most success with monstrous 33% win rate. Statistics are something you shouldn't rely on too much but these stats do give something to back up an argument.

I think I agree with you about marching from the port being a stronger move if you are going for Riverrun, but for different reasons.  I am not concerned about trading Euron for the Hound, due to deck dynamics. Greyjoy's odd in that their 4 card is in many respects their 3rd strongest, so the trade off is not as imbalanced as if it were Tyrell or Martell losing Mace/Viper.  Balon is better than a 4 card, Victarion is better on most offense and Theon gives you an extra 3 for defending Riverrun.  And on the Lannister end, the Hound represents their only forts, so that move leaves them much more vulnerable.

Rather, I like moving out of the port because it keeps your ships mobile in case there is no muster, so they can be ready to take control of the seas on round 2. Greyjoy's biggest weakness at the outset is limited orders meaning they can only make 2 marches per turn, so getting your navy in position quickly is key.

(ETA: This is especially true if Lannister is looking to Cersei you in round two. She can't freeze you in place as effectively if you have a legitimately threatening land and sea march out there.  But if your second march is still just setting the table, she can let you do that while cutting off your counter-attack.)

Last edited by Ser Hodor on 2018-Aug-27 01:53, edited 1x in total

The ship mobility is the reason I prefer the port march though I did not stress that much in my earlier post. And as you point out if Lannister is turning to Cersei in round two, you have no point of trying to hold Riverrun against Cersei with huge sea and land support - just play two offensive marches. This way you don't have to adjust your orders against Cersei while putting pressure at Lannister the same time (recently one Lannister was pushing to Cersei me in round two and I placed my orders to prevent Cersei leaving me vulnerable to The Mountain. Losing my knight for those swords and also losing my footman in counterattack due to TOB I lost that campaign pretty early).

I have to admit that even though Cersei in round two is pretty usual I did not think about that with port march before you wisely pointed that out. But if no muster hits and clash is delayed as well it is one of the strongest options in Lannister campaign.

You can also counter Cersei in round two by supporting from Seagard, assuming Stark did not take Moat Cailin with their opening march.  It still leave you vulnerable to the Mountain, but it's better to take that hit and be able to counter attack than lose a turn to Cersei and still have to worry about him next.

I’m no doctor, but I have found a good amount of success as GJ by playing patiently. Generally speaking, Lannister will want to be your friend at all costs, so you can often require that they maintain just a single ship in GS or RR left open turn 1 as terms of peace. Once either Stark or Lannister makes a move that leaves them vulnerable, that is when I prefer to strike opportunistically. Obviously, you can’t wait too long as allowing Stark to dig in up north makes him nigh unconquerable, but invading either Lannister or Stark in the first two turns is less than ideal IMO. Westeros cards can change that, of course, but I would generally say that I play GJ more passively than most, and it has worked out for me.

If I am Stark, I am positively gleeful to see Greyjoy kicking up his feet and relaxing.  Which I consider to be a red flag that it is not the optimal approach.  While he is biding time, I am quickly overtaking his initial advantage in units (without having to rely on Westeros cards), spreading out to my safer, more profitable CP positions and beginning to gather the 6 barrels available to me while he sits on his 3.

If I'm Lannister, the easy life of an unmolested Stark is not something that exists, but I'm still more than happy to see Greyjoy give me time to get settled before we start tussling.

I mean, I don't think that you should sit and do nothing, but I do think the Westeros cards should dictate where you go instead of just decided to hit Stark or Lannister.