I think it is high time we laid out the international law that dictate the behavior among allied kingdoms.  I will make a post focusing on each of the 7 alliances that have any sort of controversial borders (alliances between non-adjacent houses don't need analysis of this kind), in the hopes that if we can iron out the reasoning behind certain arrangements here we may not have to do it over and over again in chat.

So...

TYRELL/MARTELL


BIG QUESTION:  Who gets Prince’s Path?

Martell.

This looks rather debatable at first blush.  Tyrell’s “kingdom” is already pretty constricted, consisting of only 5 land areas to Dorne’s 7.  If it goes to Tyrell, that gives them both 6 areas, and shifts the barrel balance from 4-3 in one direction to 4-3 in the other direction.  That’s not so unreasonable is it?

But it is, for a few reasons.  1) The Dornish lands are more barren than Tyrell’s, and Martell desperately needs the crown position so that they don’t have to rely solely on Sunspear for tokens.  2) The buffer it provides is much more important given that Tyrell’s offensive weapons (QOT and Loras) allow their backstabs to be much more far-reaching than any other house.  As a result, it is a greater risk to allow Tyrell to hang out on your border lands than if it were any other house.  3) Because QOT and Loras are so much more effective at creating and exploiting holes in enemy defenses, Tyrell does not have as hard a time breaking out of their smaller territory as Martell does creating a foothold outside of their homelands.

The biggest problem with Martell is that they have great cards, but so few options for how to use them.  If you insist on limiting their already-constricted options even further, they lose incentive to keep the peace.  Whereas for Tyrell, they have multiple other avenues for expansion (especially with QOT’s ability to create holes in defenses from thin air).  If their intentions are pure, they can seek a 4th barrel in Searoad Marches which is much more accessible than Kingswood is for Martell.

Generally, if both parties are sincere in not seeking hostilities with each other, Martell’s ability to succeed elsewhere are more limited by giving up Prince’s Path, while Tyrell’s other paths remain mostly open without it.

MARTELL/BARATHEON

Big Question:  Who gets Storm’s End?

Martell.

This is fairly straightforward.  Ceding it to the Dornish gives both houses an even 5 muster points.  Besides this, practically speaking it is much easier for Martell to hold it with their unraidable sea support. Baratheon can try to wear them down, but generally the dynamics of this war make squabbling over a single muster point not a good idea for the stags.  Since their deck is lacking in both forts and swords, and especially because recycling Doran and the Viper more often than necessary is self-mutilating, they need to be judicious and pick only fights they can win, for territories with more strategic value.

Beyond this, there isn’t much to talk over.  Sometimes you will see them gang up on Tyrell, but overall I think the more judicious purpose here is to allow Martell to wage war to the west while leaving Baratheon free to compete with whichever northern house is not being pummeled by Greyjoy.

Dealbreaker:  The moment a ship appears in the port of Storm’s End, all bets are off. Since CP there won’t work with another house holding Shipbreaker, there is absolutely no innocent reason for Martell to place a ship there.

BARATHEON/TYRELL

The Big Question:  Who is the enemy?

It’s pretty much a given the raiding is off limits, the Reach belongs to Tyrell and Baratheon needs the supply in Blackwater much more.  But the real issue that binds Tyrell and Baratheon interests is that they are in very similar boats, waiting to see who Martell will strike, while worrying that a Lannister will consolidate their nigh-unassailable 6 barrel position around Stoney Sept before anything can be done to stop them.

To this end, while I don’t see it very frequently, an early bum rush is often their best tactic.  If they go after Lannister, the hope is to keep them from ever getting their footing, so that by the time Martell strikes and they have to pivot to deal with that, the lions are too weak to capitalize with a major offensive of their own.

Conversely, this is a tactic that I never see but I think has a great deal of merit, they could double team Martell from the start.  Generally Tyrell is too skittish to open hostilities from their highly vulnerable starting position, and as Baratheon I am usually looking to pick any other neighbor as an enemy.  But a coordinated assault can be quickly devastating. For starters, the only silver lining to Tyrell’s horrible starting position is that they have nothing to fear from Doran, and likewise Baratheon only has a single star to lose.  And since the only effect of that would be to swap it over to Tyrell while gaining Martell nothing, they may not even bother with that.  Meanwhile, QOT and Patchface can quickly shred any Dornish defenses, leaving the road open for Loras and a Baratheon occupation of East Summer Sea.  And controlling the Throne allows Baratheon to steer the Westeros Cards toward musters that will favor this alliance over the beleaguered Martells – who will not be expanding or having any room to CP, and thus only getting weaker.

Neither Baratheon or Tyrell is known for particularly fast starts, as their default starts both favor hoarding tokens to strengthen their positions through a clash.  But if they act quickly, they can decimate Martell before their most powerful weapons can be brought to bear.

BARATHEON/LANNISTER

The Big Question:  Who gets Blackwater?

This may seem like a simple question, as a lack of barrels is Baratheon’s main problem and Lannister has others to spare. Ceding it to Baratheon puts them both on an equal, four barrel footing, so how could you object?

But Lannister does have to object, I think.  For a variety of reasons.

1)   They need that overwhelming barrel advantage to make up for their lack of secure sea areas for support or transport.  With 4 barrels but no Blackwater, they are still stuck trudging 3 men armies around.  And you are not getting anywhere trying to force 3 troops through Searoad Marches or Riverrun against defending sea supports.

Conversely, Baratheon can whisk his smaller armies from anywhere in his territory to as far as his ships can reach, even with 2 barrels.  Blackwater alone isn’t fielding him a 4 ship navy, so it won’t be the deciding factor in whether his naval campaigns are successful.  And if he can take either neighboring sea area, it opens up 3-4 more barrels to him.  He really only needs the Blackwater barrels specifically if he is on unfriendly enough terms with Stark that he can’t go into the Vale, but is intent on invading Tyrell overland anyway.  Otherwise, his war will be decided on the seas.

2)  Blackwater may look like it is smack dab in the middle of the board, but it is actually much closer to Lannister’s core territory than Baratheon’s.  Because it lacks a protected sea area, Lannister must rely on Stoney Sept as its main base of support, and having an “ally” in position to raid it makes them drastically less secure.  Imagine if allowing Martell to hold Storm’s End allowed them to raid Blackwater Bay; it would change the entire dynamic and Baratheon would never agree to just allow it on faith that they won’t bother.  Furthermore, because of the lack of sea transport, it can be slower going for Lannister to regain territories after they lose them, further heightening the risk.

3)  This is compounded even further by Lannister’s lack of secure CP positions.  Holding Blackwater makes for a much better equilibrium, where raids from Crackclaw Point and Blackwater can cancel out CP orders in King’s Landing and Harrenhall.  It keeps everyone more honest, and Bara has other CP options anyway.

Of course, it is a very different story is Lannister is at war with Greyjoy.  In that case, their forces will be concentrated in the west anyway, so they can’t contest it very effectively. And if they do find any success there are more barrels to be pillaged from Greyjoy’s lands.  But in that case Bara/Lanni is generally less of a full blown alliance and more of a gentlemen’s agreement not to raid each other, which neither party has much reason to break since Lannister can’t fight on two fronts and Baratheon has no reason to hasten a Greyjoy victory by abetting Lannister’s demise.

No, the bottom line is if Lannister and Baratheon are teaming up it is generally to oppose a strong southern alliance.  And Blackwater is crucial to Lannister’s ability to fight Tyrell, which is going to be an overland war of attrition.  Whereas it is generally not going to be the deciding factor in Baratheon’s war with Martell, which is going to be decided at sea.  Ditto for Stark, if Baratheon is going that direction.

BARATHEON/STARK

Big Question:  How many barrels can Baratheon take in the Vale?

Definitely Mountains of the Moon.  And he can take the Fingers if Stark is being hard-pressed by Greyjoy and it is laying open, but Stark retains the right to take it back at the first opportunity.

Beyond that, this is just a non-aggression agreement.  Baratheon gets a barrel from the deal and Stark gets to expand faster into the Eyrie if the Narrow Sea isn’t being raided (which it absolutely should be if Baratheon does not have friendly terms with the Northmen).

TYRELL/LANNISTER

Question:  Who has rights to Searoad Marches?

This alliance is generally a pact against a strong Greyjoy, so Searoad Marches is generally not the top priority for either party at that point.  But if you’ve read the other posts, you know which way I will lean on this.  While it seems stingy for Lannister to insist upon a 6th barrel while Tyrell only has 3, it is really more about board position.  Having a Tyrell foothold in Searoad is a much bigger threat to the overall integrity of the Lannister defense matrix than having a red troop there is to Tyrell’s.  Between the ability to raid Lannister’s heartland and QOT and Loras abilities extending the potential reach of a single march beyond the adjoining territory, one must be very, very cautious about giving Tyrell an inch because it can turn into a mile faster than you can say “Web Of Lies”.

Finally, the one I have the most to say about:

LANNISTER/GREYJOY

Question 1:  Riverrun?

In the long term, Riverrun is obviously Lannister territory.  The question of specifically what happens to it on turn 1 can be much thornier, however.  It is a fat prize, with a reward for any supply, muster or game of thrones card.   But there are problems arising from either side taking it right off the bat.

If I am Greyjoy, I am perfectly happy to go for Stark instead of Lannister.  But that is a slower route, and the road gets harder the longer Stark has to prepare, mustering units and overcoming their initial CP disadvantage.  The sooner I can take Bay Of Ice and put some pressure on Winterfell, the better my chances.  To that end, I want to move into Sunset Sea as quickly as possible, but given my lack of star orders that means I have to leave Ironman Bay empty.  Then if a muster comes, turn order gives Lannister the opportunity to put a ship in Golden Sound and then to send siege engines directly from Lannisport to Pyke before I can make a move to stop it. That’s too big a risk to take.

So I can’t have Lannister taking Riverrun, which is why I generally start by telling them they have to wait until round 2 to take it.  But also I wouldn’t make such an ask as Greyjoy if I would refuse it as Lannister.  But in that case I can live with it because while taking Riverrun has its benefits, CP in Stoney Sept is a perfectly reasonable alternative.  Given that the only way to hold it against a determined Greyjoy is to send every land troop you have at it with 2 marches (and Kevan, who will probably be retreating the troop behind your lines to Harrenhall), I am not going to forego the opportunity to muster additional troops and fall behind in tokens just to take a single area. Even if it is as valuable a territory as the board has to offer.  Starting with a CP protects me against the potential disaster of an immediate clash while keeping all the weapons in my arsenal.

Furthermore, if my intention is truly not to fight Greyjoy, there is a further drawback to heading straight to Riverrun.  I am most likely to fight Baratheon, but even if it’s Tyrell, the frontline will be in/around Blackwater, and holding that will determine which way the tides turn.  So moving further away from the front is not a good start.  An experienced Greyjoy will recognize this too, and look with further suspicion upon an “ally” who insists on taking it immediately.

However, some Greyjoys take things another step.  They figure that if Riverrun is not being used anyway, surely they can pay a friendly visit, with assurances that they leave peacefully at their first opportunity?  And that is not a reasonable ask.  It puts Greyjoy on the doorstep of my capital, which is already the most vulnerable on the board due to the lack of secure seas.  Furthermore, if a muster comes Greyjoy will outpace Lannister’s unit production 6-2.  That is a drastic imbalance, and seeking it out speaks to only ill intent.

Still, some Greyjoys make themselves at home, relying on Lannisters to be too timid to actually initiate hostilities until attacked directly. But lions do not grow strong and rule the jungle if they are ruled by fear.  What am I to do, when I have an intruder at my door, who has responded to my show of good faith by taking opportunistic liberties while claiming friendliness?  Do I muster troops as though I have nothing to fear?  Do I lay my orders on the assumption that his words express his intentions more accurately than his deeds, and I will be able to take my castle peacefully?

That’s a rhetorical question.  Actually what I do is gird myself for war, and prepare to press what advantages I have (the raven and turn order) to take Riverrun by force before he has a chance to take any more moves, “innocent” or otherwise, that are counter to my interests.  Because I also don’t have a choice about marching first, and even if he has a benign -1 march laid there, with Balon and the blade in play I can’t make any move that will leave either Lannisport or Stoney Sept with less than 4 base combat strength.  If I do, I am inviting him to shred my defenses.

What it comes down to is that I need a different order set if I am taking it peacefully or by force, and I need to decide upon it and my first march before Greyjoy can make a move to prove their intentions.  All I know for sure when I make that first move is that Greyjoy opened the game with the most opportunistic move available. By inserting themselves into Lannister territory, they force any thinking player to open Turn 2 with a preemptive attack to protect their lands.

Buuuut, all this mess can be avoided by leaving Riverrun empty for one round.  No fuss, no muss.  Everyone gets their tokens, Lannister gets an extra 2 units, and Greyjoy still gets an identically worthy stronghold and a head start on their northern adventure.


Not As Big Question:  The Golden Sound

Another point of contention can be how many ships in Golden Sound is too many?  Some Greyjoys insist on only a single ship there, but I find this to be unreasonable. It is saying “I refuse to expend any effort or resources defending against the possibility of you backstabbing me, but also I require that you leave yourself wide open to being backstabbed on a whim.”

Because especially given that a treacherous Lannister will have to launch a sea assault against a) an opponent that controls both areas that envelope his only launching pad and b) has no imposed limits on mustering all his own ships and c) Balon and Victarion, the fact is that two ships is just not going to be enough to get the job done 98% of the time.  But all those factors work in the inverse, such that if Lannister is limited to a single ship in the port and sea, Greyjoy can essentially take it out by marching a single ship whenever they feel like it.  A 2nd ship provides Lannister with a modicum of security (and support for Searoad Marches, which can be crucial when battling Tyrell), without drastically increasing the threat to Greyjoy.


A third ship means trouble though.

Last edited by Ser Hodor on 2018-Oct-18 21:19, edited 1x in total

Very interesting thoughts here. Especially Lanni/GJ part. I have learned much from your tactical posts before and I have put many of them to test in my games as Lannister.
I will give these a better readtrough in a more suiting time.

Something about the Lannister/Greyjoy part:the supply of Lannister instead of the number of ships is the most thretening to Greyjoy. When a mustering happens,a Lannister player with 5 or 6 barrels will be able to muster another 3 ships in the Golden Sound,even if he has only one ship originally.If I play Greyjoy with this alliance I usually seek for advantages and expand against Stark in a slower way(taking moat calin,the twins,the stoneny shore,castle black before attacking Winterfell and saving tokens in clahses),not seeming to be too strong,and try to persuade Bara/Tyrell to stop Lannister from taking blackwater.If Lannister does take it,I will definitely take the Golden Sound and Lannisport if possible to stop him from having a chance to backstabb.

Something about the Lannister/Greyjoy part:the supply of Lannister instead of the number of ships is the most thretening to Greyjoy. When a mustering happens,a Lannister player with 5 or 6 barrels will be able to muster another 3 ships in the Golden Sound,even if he has only one ship originally.If I play Greyjoy with this alliance I usually seek for advantages and expand against Stark in a slower way(taking moat calin,the twins,the stoneny shore,castle black before attacking Winterfell and saving tokens in clahses),not seeming to be too strong,and try to persuade Bara/Tyrell to stop Lannister from taking blackwater.If Lannister does take it,I will definitely take the Golden Sound and Lannisport if possible to stop him from having a chance to backstabb.
Couple things.

1) The point about supply is illustrative; with full supply Lannister can fill up GS with 4 ships in a heartbeat, regardless of whether they have 1 or 2 there early on.

2) While you're not wrong about Lanni's supply, you can't very well demand of them that they not make any ships, and also not take the areas that allow them to expand overland.  You need to encourage Lanni getting full supply, as it is what allows them to take lands against Tyrell/Baratheon supports.  If they don't get it, a sudden backstab against GJ becomes their only viable move (even if it is still a longshot).

3) The mindset you describe just proves why Lannister is foolish to leave Golden Sound completely defenseless for Greyjoy to take whenever they feel like.

Something about the Lannister/Greyjoy part:the supply of Lannister instead of the number of ships is the most thretening to Greyjoy. When a mustering happens,a Lannister player with 5 or 6 barrels will be able to muster another 3 ships in the Golden Sound,even if he has only one ship originally.If I play Greyjoy with this alliance I usually seek for advantages and expand against Stark in a slower way(taking moat calin,the twins,the stoneny shore,castle black before attacking Winterfell and saving tokens in clahses),not seeming to be too strong,and try to persuade Bara/Tyrell to stop Lannister from taking blackwater.If Lannister does take it,I will definitely take the Golden Sound and Lannisport if possible to stop him from having a chance to backstabb.
Couple things.

1) The point about supply is illustrative; with full supply Lannister can fill up GS with 4 ships in a heartbeat, regardless of whether they have 1 or 2 there early on.

2) While you're not wrong about Lanni's supply, you can't very well demand of them that they not make any ships, and also not take the areas that allow them to expand overland.  You need to encourage Lanni getting full supply, as it is what allows them to take lands against Tyrell/Baratheon supports.  If they don't get it, a sudden backstab against GJ becomes their only viable move (even if it is still a longshot).

3) The mindset you describe just proves why Lannister is foolish to leave Golden Sound completely defenseless for Greyjoy to take whenever they feel like. There is stab wherever there is alliance.I mean Greyjoy betraying Lannister instead of the opposite:to crush Lannister down before he can ever build up his supply and navigation.The main steps:Take seagard and FF,waiting for mustering;Take bay of ice,Moat,Twins,Castle Black;destroy Stark house garrison and ship in port with a relatively small price.Maybe you can finish these on turn 5-7,and usually Lannister isn't ready to stab you if it seems that you can't hold Winterfell and Moat and have to fight for them..then it's time to stab.With Victarian you can take GS,then take RR and LP with siege engines.Even if Stark take their castles back,he can't defend it eventually as he has been greatly weakened in the first several rounds,and he can't end up with more than 4 castles,still having nearly no chance to win.PS:Web of Lies on turn 5-7 is rather favorable to this plan.I only keep my alliance when I need Lanni's help against an aggreesive Tyrell.

You're talking about when and how to break alliances. The thread was intended to be about forming them, and the initial parameters that can/should be agreeable to both sides.

Good stuff here, nothing I've noticed that I disagree with. The prince's pass and round 1 riverrun points especially. Storm's end is more like a consequence of its positioning than what should be agreed to. But your point about the ship in port is spot on. Just like imb being empty while lannister doesn't threaten it should be a red flag. Almost makes the move down to moat calin worth it to threaten Seagated during the turn gj doesn't support from imb.

I prefer going to Karhold right away as Stark, but conversely, as Greyjoy I'm most upset to see them go to MC.  Not being able to CP in either Greywater or Seagard on turn 2 really puts a damper on you initial advantages, and you need to use your limited marches at sea so you often feel like your are laying at least 1 order that is a total waste.

I like double consolidating as Stark (despite the increased risk of having to march into the Narrow Sea before Baratehon's 2 ships have moved), but if the GJ-Lanni thing because standard practice and it's obvious GJ is coming for me, the march for karhold, MC or staying put might be the best choice.

Last edited by deranger on 2018-Oct-23 23:16, edited 1x in total