great job compiling these stats. Do you have similar for GJ and Tyrell?
Yeah, here are the openings and their win rate for Tyrell and Greyjoy.

Tyrell
https://drive.google.com/open?id=1YvnhWzPJB8qJhJ7zgH5me5lRqvlLly3x

Greyjoy
https://drive.google.com/open?id=11GirFB3L4UdHT6vYQiy8BgAEw7Od1NLD

Also here I am enclosing a link to the forum thread where you can find full discussion with regards to opening strategies of different houses.

https://www.thronemaster.net/?goto=community&sub=forum&fid=3&tid=49922#top

Also, something just crossed my mind today. I would like to add that G strategy, so Support(+1) (Golden Sound), March(+0) (Lannisport), March(+1) Stoney Sept counters hard usual Greyjoy opening March (Pyke), March (Ironmen's Bay), CP (Pyke port), CP (Greywater watch). Because now you can guarantee to take Riverrun whatever Greyjoy does. He has to move his land units first and then you can strike him with 7 base strength + House card. Basically, he is forced to back down.

This also deters him to even try moving in Riverrun, therefore you can now move one footman to Riverrun, another one in Harrenhal and leave a knight in Stoney Sept. Next turn you CP in Harrenhal, support in Stoney Sept, defend in Riverrun. By defence this strong it might be a lot easier to convince Greyjoy to be peaceful.

This might also be the cause of the success o this opening. I tried it in my games and Greyjoy players always agreed for an alliance.

Compare this to the standard opening where it is always good for Greyjoy to go to Riverrun. Why? If he gets a mustering = win. If there is no mustering, sure you can kick him out, but you will not use Ser Gregor Clegane on one single footman and thus he can play Asha Greyjoy to protect himself and retreat to Harrenhal, which will totally mess your plans as he can raid you all the time. Also after the combat, your map position will be worse.

This is why I am thinking more and more that this might be a unique example where it is not good to use standard opening. At least until most Greyjoy players will not use openings that sacrifice CP potential for the benefit of marching last.

By the way, the Nomaris/Radagast theory about Lannister non-consolidation may not be accurate.

[...]

they claim that Group 2 should have a higher win rate because it indicates a GJ alliance.

To test this:
first, only 17% or so (i am eyeballing it) are in category 2. Aren't more than this typically GJ alliances?

second, the winrate of group 2 should be higher than of group 1.

[...]

In any case, I do not think the nomaris/Radagast hypothesis seems strongly enough supported to cause us to reject the strength of the category G opening move.

I claim:

1) that the proportion of marching openings is bigger when there is a Western alliance than in games with a Western war, not that all WA Lannister openings are march openings, why should they be?

2) that the win probability for Lannister is higher in a Western alliance

Nothing more, nothing less.

If my assumptions are right, this would explain higher win probabilities for march openings through simple logical deduction.

I do not claim statistical significances of win rate differences and I do not claim that the numbers proof my assumptions. But I believe that the assumptions are true and gave a plausible explanation for francs question based on these assumptions.

Last edited by Nomaris on 2018-Nov-26 00:32, edited 2x in total

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“The only way to treat disease is to understand disease.“

That seems plausible. Unfortunately, I am not sure how we could test it, because of the difficulty of knowing whether there is a WA from the logs. In any case, it is a good assumption.

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"Joffrey... Cersei... Ilyn Payne... Ser Meryn... the Hound..."

You are right, we do not have the data to test it. The possibility to infer such an information from early attacks was one of my main questions in pppoe's original thread.

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“The only way to treat disease is to understand disease.“

Ah yeah, that could be done. I guess some sort of conditional logic could be used then to code them and then test if we wanted.

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"Joffrey... Cersei... Ilyn Payne... Ser Meryn... the Hound..."