Topic: Battle of Princes Pass
Posted: 2019-May-21 15:04
Prince's Path presents something akin to a soft Prisoner's Dilemma.
Neither Tyrell nor Martell.
Tyrell has access to 5 land territories and 2 sea territories which can be held more or less assuredly:
Highgarden* (2 barrels, garrison, 2 mustering points)
Oldtown (2 mustering points) - practically unraidable
Dornish Marshes* (1 crown)
Three Towers (1 barrel)
The Arbor (1 crown) - practically unraidable
Redwyne Straights* (sea) - inner sea
West Summer Sea (Sea) - outer sea
For a total of:
4 mustering points
2 crowns
3 barrels
*= starting territory
The extended Tyrell territories include 3 contested territories:
The Reach (1 mustering point) - highly contested with Baratheon, somewhat contested with Lannister
Searoad Marches (1 barrel) - highly contested with Lannister, rarely with Greyjoy
Prince's Path (1 crown, 1 barrel) - highly contested with Martell
As the Reach is normally counted as within Tyrell's sphere of influence, this brings Tyrell's total points to:
5 mustering points
2 crowns
3 barrels
Across 6 territories + 2 sea territories
This allows for Tyrell the average 5 mustering points which a board equilibrium forms, spread across 3 victory points (again, average) with 2 power tokens gained per Game of Thrones (below average solely due to the port of Oldtown being one of the only rather useless ports in game and therefore rarely with a ship mustered in it), but with one of the most secure consolidation positions in the game with one crown and one 2-mustering point territory being practically unraidable - whilst both Dornish Marshes and Highgarden are both more or less secure with The Reach under Tyrell sway.
Tyrell's 3 equilibrium barrels are 3 - again the average.
Martell has access to 5 natural land territories and 2 sea territories (markedly with a much more relevant port off the outer sea territory, Sunspear):
Sunspear* (2 mustering points, 1 barrel, 1 crown)
Salt Shore* (1 barrel)
Starfall (1 barrel, 1 mustering point)
Yronwood (1 mustering point)
The Boneway (1 crown)
Sea of Dorne* (inner sea) - notably ships from Storm's End can muster here.
East Summer Sea (outer sea) - with a port
For a total of:
4 mustering points across 3 territories
2 crowns
3 barrels
*=starting territory
Considering Martell's extended territory:
Prince's Path (1 crown, 1 barrel) - highly contested with Tyrell
Storm's End (1 mustering point) - highly contested with Baratheon
As Storm's End is generally considered Martell territory. This brings Martell up to the average 5 mustering points, but with 1 extra victory point since it is divded over 4 territories. It also brings Martell up to six 'natural' territories on land + 2 at sea
From a resource perspective, whichever of Tyrell and Martell gains Prince's Path are practically gaining an edge on the other party.
Gaining it, would bring Martell into the 4 power tokens per GoT territory (due to their ship in port, almost always) - with 2 secure places to consolidate (port and PP). Sunspear is, however, a bad place to consolidate from since it is also the main mustering place of Martell and thus it is often not feasible to play consolidate on Sunspear - unless it is special consolidate.
The 4 supply for Martell, also practically allows them to turtle themselves to a 2nd or 3rd finish almost assuredly since 4 victory points and 4 supply would be a rather unique position.
Tyrell, on the other hand, might need the crown slightly more than Martell from a pure ressource perspective - but the territory itself is not as useful to consolidate from as long as The Reach is held - except perhaps in offering Dornish Marshes up as a support hub (since HG is often a troop mustering centre and thus one wants to play marches on it) in a battle against Baratheon/Lannister for The Reach. The barrell is less critical to Tyrell, who can find an extra barrel in both Searoad and (2) in Blackwater - meanwhile Martell practically only has Prince's Path unless they are at war with Tyrell.
In an alliance, Tyrell and Martell collectively would be stronger by one of the parties taking the territory. But whichever side has the territory will be in a better position in the game. Hence, the Prisoner's Dilemma reference. Leaving it empty is often a good diplomatic deal, though, since neither Martell nor Tyrell are particularly well off when they go full armageddon on each other.