So for the next installment of my 7 Castle analysis series (long awaited I hope!) we're looking at one of the hardest and most interesting houses to play - the lannisters.

Arguably the only house able to reasonably challenge the targaryens in the incest league the lannisters are very unforgiving in the hands of a new (or drunk!) player with a steep learning curve.

So without further ado:

Lannisport and riverrun - 50/50 - 100%
Harrenhal - 46/50 - 92%
Seagard - 38/50 - 76%
Pyke - 29/50 - 58%
Flints finger - 27/50 - 54%
Crackclaw point - 26/50 - 52%
The reach - 24/50 - 48%
Moat cailin - 18/50 - 36%
Kings landing - 17/50 - 34%
Highgarden - 12/50 - 24%
Oldtown - 6/50 - 12%
White Harbour - 3/50 - 6%
Winterfel - 2/50 - 4%
Sunspear and starfall - 1/50 - 2% (you absolute mad lad well done!)

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Not today.

Great analysis! Thank you!

Except for Sunspear and Starfall this is exactly as I would suspect it:

Best chances for a 7 castle Lanni win are against Greyjoy + Moat Cailin, followed by combinations against Bara and Tyrell.

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“The only way to treat disease is to understand disease.“

Thanks nomaris, just my little low tech attempt to build and deepen the body of theory behind this game

Key takeaways are that greyjoy are your primary route to victory followed by baratheon and tyrell in that order. Most of these games ended with greyjoy almost entirely wiped out.

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Not today.

Couple more points on reflection:

More than half these wins require a conquest of greyjoy.

Tyrell should be more afraid of you than you of tyrell (they might QoT stony Sept but they won't end the game controlling your castles).

Once we hit the middle game we should have 3 stony septs: the original stony Sept but also harrenhal (if you are above baratheon on the iron throne (worth it despite super stannis) and control Blackwater (which you should) a raid from Blackwater to crackclaw makes harrenhal unreadable support) and eventually ironmans Bay.

Just like tyrell ironmans Bay is your meal ticket. While tyrell are only your 3rd best prospect to conquer you will want the same areas so be on guard. Based on my tyrell analysis lannister is 5 times more likely to conquer tyrell than vice versa.

Never forget ironmans Bay is to you what the narrow sea is to baratheon. Early game to paraphrase yoda in attack of the clones

"around stony Sept, a perimeter create" with your midgame objectives being to prepare to backstab greyjoy and lock down either ironmans or harrenhal as a 2nd unraidable support hub.

If you manage to get all 3 you really should be winning this game bar a timely Web of lies.

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Not today.

One surprise I see is that none of the Lannis above has taken the Eyrié, which is NOT a bad plan if you manage to get a control on CCP. Thanks for the analysis, great one.

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The Eyrie is 2 steps away from CCP, which is already outside Lanni's secure perimeter. Getting an army there while exposed to enemy sea support/transport is practically impossible.

One thing I was surprised at was how often baratheon castles show up given the constant sea support from shipbreaker and Blackwater bay. I suspect these were the last castles taken before baratheon could recapture.

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Not today.

Or sea support was countered by HH and/or BW support.

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“The only way to treat disease is to understand disease.“

I think harrenhal is the key, once you take ccp harrenhal becomes your second stony Sept. I think its importance is slept on maybe because it 'only' supports 4 territories but those 4 territories are stony Sept, riverrun ccp and Blackwater - all lynch pins of lannisters game.

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Not today.