Yes, I don't see Baratheon interference being at all guaranteed, even when Martell is stomping Tyrell.  Many Bara's see a southern war as a greenlight to sail north, where they have a much better match up and no Doran/Arianne to worry about.

Others, of course, get embroiled with Lannister on land, but I think this tends to be less productive.  In any case, Martell cards are such an enormous pain in the ass that it usually makes them everyone's last choice to pick a fight with.

For Baratheon, going north is much more appealing if Martell already sails west. He then attacks The Shivering Sea afterwards, and White Harbour, Moat Calin, The Eyrie, Reach, Winterfell… so many options for him.  This kind of game usually becomes a race between Baratheon and Martell, maybe Greyjoy also.
In my opinion going north is not always much more appealing. As Ser Hodor stated, Stark has weaker combat cards which surely makes it tempting to go north. However, going south can also provide 4 additional castles to Bara. On top of that, if Bara takes ESS then Sunspear is already within reach, whereas Winterfell is more likely to hold for a few turns after Bara enters the Narrow Sea. And Sunspear - with a stronghold, a barrel and a crown symbol - is much more valuable than a land area with only a castle as in Moat Cailin or White Harbor.

I agree that fighting Martell won't be easy for Bara, but I think Bara can still do well against Martell if Patchface is used at the perfect time (e.g. by baiting Arianne with Patchface in a crucial fight that Martell is sure to lose, like in ESS or Sunspear. Now that Arianne is gone Bara can discard either the Viper or Doran, leaving Martell with no strong asset). Besides, the war between Martell and Tyrell will most likely weaken the defense of ESS, giving to Bara the opportunity to break into Martell territory. To make things clear, I'm not really convinced that Martell can defend ESS with a combat strength of ~6 while pushing hard on Tyrell at sea.

That being said, going north or south are 2 viable options for Bara. In the end I believe that Bara's choice will depend on the strategy of other houses. For instance, if Greyjoy quickly heads north then Stark is much less of a threat for the final win, so the best move for Bara might be to help Stark against Greyjoy. Moreover if both Bara and Greyjoy go north, they will split the northern castles and both of them will struggle to reach 7 castles anyway.

Going back to Martell strategy, IMO attacking Tyrell at sea is an interesting but risky option, unless Bara is a trustworthy ally or already at war with another house. In this case Martell should never neglect the defense of ESS, either through support orders or card management.

Last edited by _LoGo_ on 2021-Mar-25 12:34, edited 1x in total

Agree that it's harder, but it's doable as well.

Example of this in League, Div 1, against Mel, one of the best players around.

https://game.thronemaster.net/?review=1&game=248098

Also had myself another one - but similarly with a Martell going west.

A good Bara will always consider the 3 options: going North, going SOuth, splitting in the middle. All can lead to a win, and even possibly a 7 one.

But that should be discussed in the Bara post.

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LoI&F: Seasons 10 and 11 King
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Usually it's much easier to go north. After you take the Narrow Sea, the first thing to do is to attack the Shivering Sea and White Harbour to totally wipe out Stark's naval armies anyway. So Narrow Sea's not adjacant to Winterfell is not a  huge problem. What's more, Bara is lack of supply, which can be gained from the Vale. Greyjoy's invading north is good for me if I wish to sail north. Stark may consider me as an "ally" and betraying someone that doesn't pay attention to defending you is much easier than challenging Arianne/Doran.

If you look at the games Bara wins, mostly he enters the Narrow Sea(maybe 50%+?).It's proved to be the best way for Bara to win anyway.
For sure, Bara will have an easier time going North rather than South. But as you said, going North is really easy for Bara only if Stark is weakened by Greyjoy while Martell is sailing west. Once Bara gets north and sinks all the ships of house Stark (which indeed requires a couple of rounds at least), he faces Greyjoy and probably Lanni too. While Bara is struggling to get to 7 castles, Martell can grab a 7th castle thanks to Tyrell land areas more or less easily, mostly depending on Westeros cards.

All in all going North early provides Bara a straightforward midgame strategy, but it does not guarantees a win with 7 castles. Martell might get to 7 castles earlier, unless he is stopped by Lanni or... Bara. You either engage in a risky race against Martell, or you fight him to definitely prevent Martell from winning quickly, while still possibly invading his 4 castles to win the whole game.

I think this debate could be endless, because each game is dependent on diplomacy and other houses strategies. Nevertheless I believe the initial question from PMeisterGeneral is legitimate:

How does a dornishman deal with the midgame threat of baratheon after attacking tyrell turn 2?
And that is because a skilled Bara player will consider the option to attack Martell if a decent opportunity presents itself. As I said in my previous post, I think a Martell player going west needs to keep a strong defense in ESS thanks to support and def orders, but most importantly thanks to a very careful management of his combat cards, especially Doran and Arianne.

Some really interesting points made. Tyrell are generally more dangerous backstabbers than baratheon so makes sense to be the aggressor.

Maintaining the defence of ess and preserving doran/arienne to the best of our ability seems to be the consensus.

To ask another question about the turn 2 tyrell Blitz:

"under what circumstances should a martell player pass up the opportunity to take wss on a no clash no muster turn 2? Is it the best move?"

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Not today.