I have read the topic Openings and their Winrate on Thronemaster.net posted by PPPPaco.

This is a great contribution as we can see that most houses have only one or maybe two openings that give highest average winrate. I found that most of them are logical. For example special consolidate power is wise to use as you are less dependent on event cards. Statistics also show that money is really important so using CP on a single footman is a strong move even for Stark and Martell.

However, there is one exepction: Lannister. The standard strategy of special CP*, CP and Def +2 doesn't have the higest winrate by far even though this is the most common opening that I see in the games here. It mimics other houses where CP* for more troops and CP for more money seems to be the best strategy. But not for Lannister. Take a look at statistics for winrate of different strategies.

https://drive.google.com/open?id=14Om1tPBZKPF-1d0i-klKHfP9nf3xtnNK

The standard CP*, CP, Def +2 gives you only the 4th highest winrate of all possible openings. What facinates me here is that it seems like the best winrates (first 3) come from the opening moves where you agressively contest Riverrun or even aggresively move against Greyjoy on the sea.

Opening G has highest winrate and you totaly ignore money and CP*. You bassicaly garantee to take Riverrun unless Greyjoy uses double march order on land troops and brings all his units in Riverrun. You seem to not care about Def on your ship and only support troops in Riverrun.

Opening K has second highest winrate and again you are marching in Riverrun. With 3 march orders you are guaranteed to march last and use march +1 order to strike Greyjoy. He can secure wictory only if he places all of his troops in Riverrrun.

What was a supprise to me was that even C opening has higher winrate compared to standard one. Here you place CP on Stoney sept, CP* on Lannisport and March +1 on Golden Sound. Only explanation of superiority of this strategy against standard one is that maybe you either march on Greyjoy and burn his good card (you use Hound to defend against catualities) or you move to Sunset Sea and then muster more ships in Golden Sound and this gives you naval superiority.

I know Lannister is more complicated to analyse compared to other houses as he can use Raven and change orders, but still. Contrary to other houses opening strategies I don't find real logic in these statistics. Why is CP*,CP, Def +2 not optimal here even though almost everyone plays it? Maybe Riverrun is so important to defend against Greyjoy? Why is C better then A? By playing C you are using march +1 against Greyjoy even though he has better housecards and a sword. How can this be better then defending??

I will be greatfull to discuss this interesting topic

Last edited by franc on 2018-Nov-19 23:57, edited 4x in total

Are these statistics before or after switching with the raven token?

Also, I haven't looked into the games, but are you sure the marches are necessarily being used to attack GJ vs gaining more ground and as a deterrent to GJ? And then getting lucky with a Mustering or something.

For any of these, does the most common move set have the highest win rate? I imagine those with fewer trials have a larger chance of being outliers in either direction, even with a slight tactical disadvantage.

Sorry, forgot to say these orders are BEFORE the use of messanger raven.

The moves on the land are absolutely not used to attack Greyjoy unless he comes in Riverrun. But as I said before I don't understand why putting CP*,CP and march order +1 (on the ship) would have better win rate compared to CP*,CP and Def +2. Only reason is to attack the Greyjoys fleet or to move to Sunset Sea and muster more ships from CP* order. But this means you will attack Greyjoy fleet later. Interestingly enough statistics show this is better for the winrate compared to defending the Golden Sound.
What do you mean it is better to march and take strongholds and then hope for muster? This is clearly not good for other houses. They benefit from CP* more. However, Lannister is in special situation and it seems like it is better to push Greyjoy out of Riverrun than leave him take it and putting CP* on Lannisport. Why?

Regarding the unusual moves not being statisticaly significant click on the link I gave.

https://drive.google.com/open?id=14Om1tPBZKPF-1d0i-klKHfP9nf3xtnNK

As you can see even the least popular strategies have more than 300 games played. This is quite a lot in my opinion.

Again my main question is: if other openings give you higher win ratings, why most people still use the standard CP*, CP, Def+2?

Last edited by franc on 2018-Nov-20 00:03, edited 11x in total

1) March in Golden Sound is superior to defend, if Greyjoy doesn't have a move in IMB (which he definitely should have, if fighting you). You can draw out a high-level card or move take Sunset Sea. This happens most often with unexperienced Greyjoy players.

2) The statistics are calculated from all Games, not only those where Lanni and Greyjoy fight. I would assume that Lannister winrates are better, if there is an alliance. And marching from Lannisport and Stoney Sept makes most sense in games where they are allied.

So, basically, I believe that the better winrates are due to an unexperienced Greyjoy and the existence of a Western alliance, respectively. The numbers unfortunately do not tell us what the best opening is to fight against(!) an experienced(!) Greyjoy.

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“The only way to treat disease is to understand disease.“

1.) You are right. If Greyjoy doesn't have a march order in IMB, then it is better to march and take Sunset Sea or maybe bait a high card from him if you decide to attack. But what if he has a march order in IMB. In my games almost always Greyjoy has a march order in IMB. Isn't then better to defend? Or should you move to Sunset sea and let him occupy Golden Sound?

2.) Hmmm. So your argument is that opening moves are not independent on alliance? So if Lannister knows he is allied with Greyjoy he is more likely to march his troops and not CP*? This doesn't makes sense. For every other house it is best strategy to CP* in main castle and CP on one lone footman. Why is there such a contrast with Lannister. I am not so sure about this theory. Because Greyjoy can always lie and says he will ally and then backstab you. So I am quite certaint orders can be seen as independent from info whether you agree on alliance with Greyjoy or not.

Last edited by franc on 2018-Nov-20 00:32, edited 5x in total

I think it makes sense. You expect war with GJ as a fact and sure thing. My experience says it is not like that. I think (and lots of players around too), that it is most beneficial to both GJ and Lanni to cooperate.
First - playing Lannister means a lot of diplomacy - your first need is to negotiate peace with GJ. If you manage to do so, you can spread as fast as possible across the continent and cp later. This may be cause of higer WR of "march type" starts.
If you use CP*, CP and def, it probably means you failed in negotiation of peace with GJ or you have no contact with him, so you are preparing yourself for war, which often means you are not going to win...

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Okey, so you two are saying in case you negotiate a peace with Greyjoy it is optimal to march. Because you are in alliance you don't get attacked and this equals higher winrate.

My question is why would you prefer to march if you have alliance with Greyjoy and not CP* and CP? Look at these statistics from other houses and you can see it is always better to CP* and CP for them and not march!!!

Martell
https://drive.google.com/open?id=12An1p7soEFKc9XVgs_YC8LX4DpAXSDkX

Baratheon
https://drive.google.com/open?id=1MhYs_lLNcQJZ1Dgkr3zkYJJdH96XsZWY

Stark
https://drive.google.com/open?id=1nhs5a90703wUlYs6FS1UnLiiqVO2bjbk

Last edited by franc on 2018-Nov-20 00:42, edited 6x in total

My question is why would you prefer to march if you have alliance with Greyjoy and not CP* and CP. Look at these statistics from other houses and you can see it is always better to CP* and CP for them and not to march!!
By marching (to Riverrun, Harrenhal and Blackwater) Lannister secures three additional muster points, three additional barrels and one additional crown (we do not leave a pt in Stoney Sept!). That's more than anybody else can do (apart from Greyjoy who can't cp*).

In addition to this you can cp*/cp massively in round 2, since it is pretty likely that Bara did not take Kings Landing and Tyrell did not take The Reach in the first round AND you almost closed your support circle around Stoney Sept. Baratheon will have quiet some difficulties to get into Blackwater now.

Last edited by Nomaris on 2018-Nov-20 00:50, edited 2x in total

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“The only way to treat disease is to understand disease.“

Every other house have different positions. As a Lannister you need to control all of areas around Stoney sept - Circle of Death =).
We are only giving you possible explanations and possible reasons. I think these might be valuable advices to you (as I look on number of your games), so no need to use exclamation marks. Truth is, that Playing Lanni is always a lottery and you need luck. Do not overestimate numbers, because you don't know all of the aspects, as Nomaris have already told you.

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World Cup 2019 - Team Czechoslovakia

My question is why would you prefer to march if you have alliance with Greyjoy and not CP* and CP. Look at these statistics from other houses and you can see it is always better to CP* and CP for them and not to march!!
By marching (to Riverrun, Harrenhal and Blackwater) Lannister secures three additional muster points, three additional barrels and one additional crown (we do not leave a pt in Stoney Sept!). That's more than anybody else can do (apart from Greyjoy who can't cp*). In addition to this you can cp*/cp massively in round 2, since it is pretty likely that Bara did not take Kings Landing and Tyrell did not take The Reach in the first round AND you almost closed your support circle around Stoney Sept. Baratheon will have quiet some difficulties to get into Blackwater now.
I see. You argue that areas around Lannister are so rich it is simply better to take territories and don't bother with money and cash. This is logical explanation yes.
But this massive spread on 3 areas really has a big leap of fate that Greyjoy will cooperate. Safer bet would be to leave a knight in Stoney sept so it can support if Greyjoy backstabs you and marches in Riverrun.

I agree it is beneficial if both cooperate, but since I have not finished enough games to play professional I am in environment where Greyjoy players almost always attack Lannister...

Last edited by franc on 2018-Nov-20 00:51, edited 1x in total

But this massive spread on 3 areas really has a big leap of fate that Greyjoy will cooperate. Safer bet would be to leave a knight in Stoney sept so it can support if Greyjoy backstabs you and marches in Riverrun.
You could support Riverrun from Harrenhal instead of Stoney Sept, but yes, you can leave the knight in Stoney Sept instead of going to Blackwater and have even better cp possibilities in round 2. The downside is that Blackwater is not yet secured.

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“The only way to treat disease is to understand disease.“

1.) Now I see your arguments about marching if you strike an alliance with Greyjoy. But how can you be sure he is telling the truth? He can lie and backstab you. Would you guys still advice to march always when Greyjoy says he will be your ally?

2.) Also do you think CP*, CP, Def+2 is best opening to counter agressive Greyjoy? Or is March+0 (Lannisport), March+1 (Stoney Sept), Sup+1 (Golden Sound) better. Due to the fact that you have the raven you can always march last and win the battle by using Kevin. Only exeption is if Greyjoy comits all of his forces in Riverrun.

Last edited by franc on 2018-Nov-20 14:57, edited 1x in total

1.) Now I see your arguments about marching if you strike an alliance with Greyjoy. But how can you be sure he is telling the truth? He can lie and backstab you. Would you guys still advice to march always when Greyjoy says he will be your ally?

2.) Also do you think CP*, CP, Def+2 is best opening to counter agressive Greyjoy? Or is March+0 (Lannisport), March+1 (Stoney Sept), Sup+1 (Golden Sound) better. Due to the fact that you have the raven you can always march last and win the battle by using Kevin. Only exeption is if Greyjoy comits all of his forces in Riverrun.

1) You can see Greyjoy’s colors before you use your final march, since they can only play 2 and have to move their units from Pyke before they can leave Ironman Bay.

2). I prefer the CP opening for the most part, since it is fairly easy to take Riverrun on the second turn barring some truly unfortunate Westeros cards (muster + web of lies or a clash where GJ manages to bid better despite having an equal amount of cash).

I think what accounts for part of the difference is that the “optimal” play accounts only for wins and not for a more intangible elements of game “quality”.  It may well be that gambling on hitting an early muster while avoiding a clash does produce 4% more wins in the aggregate. But you are still going to lose a majority of the time (it’s a 6P game, there will always be more losers than winners), and it’s possible that when you don’t hit the cards you need you are setting yourself to be crippled early, and that is what everyone wants to avoid. Sitting down for a four hour game is a commitment, and you feel the pain most acutely when your chances of winning are foreclosed in the first 10 minutes.  The CP opening means there are fewer outright disasters that can occur in the first Westeros phase, and guarantees that I stay in contention a little bit longer.

I think nomaris is right: when you see a lannister opening without consolidating, it usually means that he's allied with greyjoy, and this skyrockets his chances to win. Ok, maybe not "skyrockets", but it surely increases them. True, greyjoy can betray, but that's unusual for a number of reasons, so statistics still shows better win rates.
I personally prefer to march my knight and footman to stoney sept, and then, from there, march a footman to riverrun and the other to blackwater, to have a unit ready for effective support from round two while not giving up that much, if supply or muster shows up. By not taking harrenhal you give up on a crown and a castle for possible muster + game of thrones, but in the end you are better prepared against a baratheon attack which is likely to happen already in turn three, and in turn two, when he's unlikely to have already conquered kings landing, he can consolidate for a juicy two extra tokens.

great job compiling these stats. Do you have similar for GJ and Tyrell?

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"Joffrey... Cersei... Ilyn Payne... Ser Meryn... the Hound..."

By the way, the Nomaris/Radagast theory about Lannister non-consolidation may not be accurate. I work with statistics professionally, so this is based on some of my knowledge:

Group 1) A B C D F H I are consolidate categories
Group 2) E G J K L are non-consolidate categories

they claim that Group 2 should have a higher win rate because it indicates a GJ alliance.

To test this:
first, only 17% or so (i am eyeballing it) are in category 2. Aren't more than this typically GJ alliances?

second, the winrate of group 2 should be higher than of group 1. I have not run the statistics and don't want to spend 30 minutes doing so without the raw data. Indeed it seems this group has a slightly higher winrate than group 1, but it is not much higher. A t-test would be required to see if it is statistically significant.

In any case, I do not think the nomaris/Radagast hypothesis seems strongly enough supported to cause us to reject the strength of the category G opening move.

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"Joffrey... Cersei... Ilyn Payne... Ser Meryn... the Hound..."