I don't really agree much with your analysis - although the premise of it is good.

Here is my, brief, take on the same topic for Baratheon (I'll get back to this thread and the five other houses later).

Diplomatic Necessities of House Baratheon given the Average Board State

Baratheon

Baratheon borders Stark and Martell at sea.
Baratheon borders Martell , Tyrell and Lannister on land.

All of these factions are potential enemies, although Tyrell lands offer very little to Baratheon except The Reach - and even that is almost always a 7th castle as Baratheon would otherwise overextend himself.

As a consequence, Greyjoy should be a natural ally of Baratheon.

I would, however, argue that they are not. Practically no faction in a regular 6player Game of Thrones can afford being allied with Greyjoy for the simple reason that Greyjoy either pounces on Lannister and in most cases is a contender for winning the game (and in this case, will end up bordering Baratheon too via Harrenhal) - or Greyjoy is an ally of Lannister, which in due time will make Greyjoy a friend of Baratheon's enemy.

Given the normalcy of a Greyjoy vs. Lannister all-out war, Baratheon actually rather finds himself a 'vassal' in Lannister whom he needs to support in order for Lannister to not collapse too quickly.

If Greyjoy and Lannister are not at war, they are almost certainly allied - meaning that Greyjoy are, by proxy of Lannister empoaching on Blackwater and the critical 2 barrels Baratheon need there, in fact an enemy of Baratheon.

Thus, my point here, sums up to be that Greyjoy is generally too powerful given a normal board state and thus can be considered the equivilant of Napoleon France - a nation not even natural allies of France could really afford being allied to. There are exceptions, a Geryjoy who started losing against Lannister - or a Greyjoy heavily pressured by both Stark, Lannister and Tyrell etc.

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Neither Martell nor Stark are trustworthy allies of Baratheon for the simple reason of the threat to Baratheon's critical sea territory and the vulnerability of Dragonstone if Baratheon loses the sea.

The only ally with whom Baratheon's interest coincide is Tyrell, given that neither can threaten each other's sea territory and given their common enemy (Martell) being such a proficient turtler - teaming up is often the only option if a strike in the later game is to succeed unless Martell is severely weakened already.

The primary concern in a Baratheon/Tyrell / alliance is The Reach.

Baratheon should always ensure that a / alliance does not materialize, since it will spell the doom for him. In this effort, I do see a use for Greyjoy - but it is almost a given that Greyjoy and Stark will war, anyway, so an alliance might only serve to antagonize Stark. Likewise, a / alliance could do the same - so Baratheon should pick an ally between the two.

My preference would be to ally with Stark, Martell AND Tyrell - whilst then picking sides as the board state develops.

Last edited by TheWarden on 2019-May-22 22:48, edited 4x in total

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"Si Vis Pacem, Para Bellum"

Concur with the Warden that Baratheon gets too meager returns on an alliance with GJ to justify the risks of imbalancing the board by creating an early Ironborn juggernaut.

Zwc is also onto something though, that the most stable and productive alliances are generally between non-adjacent houses. I think there is a natural convergence of the interests of Martell/Lannister and Baratheon/Tyrell, but you don't see them teaming up regularly.

I agree with TheWarden about Bara - Greyjoy.

In my opinion alliances with neighbours are normally more beneficial than with far away houses. Not needing to fight on two fronts + save cp and supports are better than teaming up on a common enemy in my opinion. Especially since you have to share the fruit of your labors with your ally.

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“The only way to treat disease is to understand disease.“