I'm of the belief that Martell is best when they commit 100%.  I feel like it's always better to play risky with Martell, because that golden opportunity sometimes never comes. Sometimes a good opportunity is all you'll get--so go for it while you can.

I'll keep this advice general, but it will be on a case-by-case basis, obviously.  There is just one main priority to dissuade an attack from Baratheon--keep Doran and (to a lesser extent) Arianne for as long as you can keeping an eye on:

1) Has a clash occurred yet?

2) What are Baratheon's priorities?

3) Is another clash likely coming and what is Baratheon's power token position?

If a clash has recently occurred (let's say start of turn 3), it just depends on how well you and Baratheon did on bids.  If Baratheon has two or more stars and you still have at least one, Baratheon will be pretty hesitant to make a move unless they also have the blade.  If a clash hasn't hit yet, Baratheon *still* really doesn't want to lose their lone star too early.  However, by Round 5, if no clash has hit (And you've made a good foothold) you have to assume Baratheon is coming, because the odds of the clash make it worth the whack from Doran.  This ultimately is the instinct you'll have to develop--how long will Baratheon hold out in fear from Doran until it's worth the risk of the hit.  I tend to think that the more savvy Baratheon players just go for it early if no clash, because none of Baratheon's positions are fantastic at the start... which brings me to...

Baratheon's priorities really boil down to--are they pushing for Blackwater fast or are they getting their sea network established.  The vast majority of players prefer the sea route, because the early Martell aggression is so so dangerous.  If this is the case, you, as Martell, have to dedicate yourself to constant mustering in Sunspear for the first few turns to keep East Summer Sea as packed as possible.  As long as you keep a dedicated number of ships with strong orders--you'll be ok.  2 in ESS, 1 in Sea of Dorne, 1 in Port --> if you've got this going with supports plus a defense order--Baratheon will have a hell of a time to stop you. That's 6 for you before cards.  Realistically, Baratheon can only get to 4--and that requires a +1 march--which is probably his ONLY star order.  As long as you can keep a strong presence (and get a little lucky with the Westeros cards) you can present a very real threat to stare down.

If Baratheon has a strong power pool and a clash is imminent, they will likely throw caution to the wind.  They will also likely stage a stronger incursion via land at this point--because breaking into the sea won't be worth the cost of losing ships unless they telegraph it with a heavy march plus a muster.

In summation--you have to make the cost of the attack worth more than it would be worth in the next few rounds.  Not always possible--but it should be your goal.

Last edited by JukeboxHero on 2021-Mar-23 01:51, edited 1x in total

I'll keep this advice general, but it will be on a case-by-case basis, obviously.  There is just one main priority to dissuade an attack from Baratheon--keep Doran and (to a lesser extent) Arianne for as long as you can keeping an eye on:

1) Has a clash occurred yet?

2) What are Baratheon's priorities?

3) Is another clash likely coming and what is Baratheon's power token position?

If a clash has recently occurred (let's say start of turn 3), it just depends on how well you and Baratheon did on bids.  If Baratheon has two or more stars and you still have at least one, Baratheon will be pretty hesitant to make a move unless they also have the blade.  If a clash hasn't hit yet, Baratheon *still* really doesn't want to lose their lone star too early.  However, by Round 5, if no clash has hit (And you've made a good foothold) you have to assume Baratheon is coming, because the odds of the clash make it worth the whack from Doran.  This ultimately is the instinct you'll have to develop--how long will Baratheon hold out in fear from Doran until it's worth the risk of the hit.  I tend to think that the more savvy Baratheon players just go for it early if no clash, because none of Baratheon's positions are fantastic at the start... which brings me to...

Baratheon's priorities really boil down to--are they pushing for Blackwater fast or are they getting their sea network established.  The vast majority of players prefer the sea route, because the early Martell aggression is so so dangerous.  If this is the case, you, as Martell, have to dedicate yourself to constant mustering in Sunspear for the first few turns to keep East Summer Sea as packed as possible.  As long as you keep a dedicated number of ships with strong orders--you'll be ok.  2 in ESS, 1 in Sea of Dorne, 1 in Port --> if you've got this going with supports plus a defense order--Baratheon will have a hell of a time to stop you. That's 6 for you before cards.  Realistically, Baratheon can only get to 4--and that requires a +1 march--which is probably his ONLY star order.  As long as you can keep a strong presence (and get a little lucky with the Westeros cards) you can present a very real threat to stare down.

If Baratheon has a strong power pool and a clash is imminent, they will likely throw caution to the wind.  They will also likely stage a stronger incursion via land at this point--because breaking into the sea won't be worth the cost of losing ships unless they telegraph it with a heavy march plus a muster.

In summation--you have to make the cost of the attack worth more than it would be worth in the next few rounds.  Not always possible--but it should be your goal.
For Baratheon, going north is much more appealing if Martell already sails west. He then attacks The Shivering Sea afterwards, and White Harbour, Moat Calin, The Eyrie, Reach, Winterfell… so many options for him.  This kind of game usually becomes a race between Baratheon and Martell, maybe Greyjoy also.

Stark is usually weak after an early clash. Good Bara players won't let such a pleasant opportunity go away.