zwc098KnightPosts: 27
Games: 105
Rank Points: 575
Member since: 2017-May-09
Topic: House Analysis - Greyjoy
Posted: 2021-Mar-20 03:58
In hoping to turn this away from Lanni discussion and back to GJ;
What you propose has merit, but not having a CP* on LP allows me as GJ to take and hold Riverrun with much less of a threat of Cersei from a Siege Engine next round.
Except no, it doesn't quite. At least not against a Lannister that is paying attention. That Lanni smells a rat if they see a support order in Ironman Bay, and adjusts their own orders accordingly. Two land marches is pretty suspicious in itself, but you can claim "oh I'm just going to take Moat Cailin while I spread out" I guess, since some Greyjoys do opt for that (imo) suboptimal opening from time to time. Of course, a genuinely friendly Greyjoy could always make the move to MC first in order to reassure Lanni at no cost to himself.
In any case, you will need two marches to enter Riverrun last, rather than before Lannister has used a 6 str March +1 order in Stoney Sept. If one of them is not in Ironman Bay, you are failing to expand your control of the sea and costing yourself a crucial early token, which basically takes using Aeron off the table except in case of emergency.
But okay, let's say Lanni does allow you to take Riverrun without a fight, opting instead to spread his troops across Stoney, Harrenhall and Lannisport. How secure is your hold on turn 2, really? If there is no major action in the Westeros Cards, holding it probably means putting raids there and in Ironman, and supporting in Seagard. Anything else puts you at risk not just from Cersei, but also of losing one of your precious few land troops to the Mountain's ravenous maw.
So in that case, protecting Riverrun means you are not expanding any further on land or sea, and also not getting CP production from your rich new domains. Lannister, of course, is also not being very productive, so this pseudo-stalemate is really just a gift to the rest of your rivals, who are still expanding and gold farming peacefully.
Anyhow, this is all by way of saying that prioritizing Riverrun on turn 1 is fraught with peril and can quickly turn into a quagmire if you don't get the Westeros cards you are looking for. I generally prefer to prioritize Greyjoy's limited march orders on taking control of the seas, and then worrying about the land.
Moving to MC on turn 1 is usually bad for GJ. What if Lannister musters ships and chooses a clash(about 55%) with 8 pts while you have 5? What's more, the ft in MC is just for raid later on. Stark is higher than you on IT track before a clash, and the ft there is killed sonner than later.
