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Ser Hodor
Son Of Hodor

Posts: 756
Games: 1,331
Rank Points: 10,054
Member since: 2016-Mar-20

Topic: House Analysis - Baratheon
Posted: 2019-Aug-07 20:35
Revisiting these with an additional year of experience.  In that time, my Baratheon win rate has improved markedly, overtaking my Stark results and reaching a full 25% of 6 player games.  I don't think my approach has changed dramatically (I still start by reaching out to Martell and don't mess around with taking KL on the first turn), but I have come to appreciate more that board position is the greatest strength of Baratheon.  The lack of supply is a drag, but the ability to attack everyone but Greyjoy directly allows you to influence the game more proactively as you become more adept at reading the board and flows of momentum.

This sort of awareness is what separates experts from amateurs, in my opinion.  While it's important in every type of game, it seems to me that House Baratheon and Tyrell in particular can't afford to get tunnel vision and have to keep a close eye on all parts of the board at all times.

One thing I've noticed lately is that my Baratheon wins tend to hinge on sea battles, and I've actually had more success conquering Dorne than beating Lannister recently. One tactic that I have developed to facilitate Bara wins is to strike fast, and then slow down. By this, I mean that you often have to take one of your neighbors by surpise in order to take Narrow Sea or East Summer Sea, but once you do that, move more methodically. The important thing is to maintain your sea control, and to that end it can be vital to take out White Harbor or Storm's End to sink the ships there.  But usually it is a mistake to devote troops and premium cards/orders to taking castles quickly.  Instead, focus on taking out the remaining sea forces in Shivering Sea or Sea Of Dorne, and spread your troops out carefully to secure barrels and prime raiding/support positions.  Since Bara cards are so lacking in swords, an all out assault often fails to land a killing blow anyway, so a slower strangling process seems to work better.

One other thing is that a couple of my recent wins have been secured by having Patchface attack Martell when they are on their last card and removing Doran.  I've found the Prince of Dorne can be a major spoiler, especially if he takes away your star orders right when you have drawn everyone's attention and are suddenly facing a triple team.

When attempting to win over land, I think the same lesson about moving methodically applies.  With Bara's position, they can access 6 castles directly from their core territories, which means that you don't actually have to conquer anyone completely to secure a pretty sure win. You really don't need to go any further than Harrenhall/the Reach, so focus on keeping them secure rather than plotting  more ambitious campaign.

That's my current thoughts, anyway.
Necrarch
Knight of Ni

Posts: 2,044
Games: 135
Rank Points: 1,003
Member since: 2019-Feb-01

Topic: House Analysis - Baratheon
Posted: 2019-Aug-08 13:56
Agree with you, there is two way for a Bara win at 7: either a major naval win over ESS or Narrow Sea (that’s THE use for Super Stannis) or seen recently an original one where Martell/Tyrell were at war, Gj/Lanni as well so he allied with me (Stark), and stole in a turn Harrenhal to Lanni, Reach to Tyrell and Storms End to Martell and sneaked a knight to MotM. Just took quickly Eyrie for a beautiful 7 (congrats to Millbiller doing that in World Cup!).
However, very hard to do and if fails, everyone falls on your back.

At all cost I believe you need peace at first, but also a benevolent Tyrell: you have basically nothing to gain with him except a last turn Reach steal, and much to lose.


Ser Hodor
Son Of Hodor

Posts: 756
Games: 1,331
Rank Points: 10,054
Member since: 2016-Mar-20

Topic: House Analysis - Baratheon
Posted: 2019-Aug-08 16:36
I've long been of the idea that Bara and Tyrell usually have nothing to gain fighting with each.  Mostly you'll be squabbling over the Reach, and a single muster point in such a central position means that neutral support/raids will be decisive.  Why start a war with Tyrell that will be decided by Martell/Lannister?
Jester
Blacksmith

Posts: 66
Games: 23
Rank Points: 160
Member since: 2018-Mar-03

Topic: House Analysis - Baratheon
Posted: 2020-Jun-05 09:31
Well I agree with pretty much everything you said here. Baratheon should secure resources, protect the seas, reach out to southern neighbors and forge alliance. Automatic.

Rush tactics are fun, but House cards and board position don't facilitate it at all. Sure, there is a slight chance to get 7 castles with minimum combat, but it tells more about other guys than Baratheon's skill. With decent players, I'd rather go for a balanced early game, CP often, engage in diplo and only then pick a fight. Worst scenario is ofc West/South Alliance, you're truly screwed then.

Baratheon is the easiest to gang up on so you should always take notice of musters, march orders, who-raids-who and other signs of imminent backstab/invasion. Giving up Blackwater for free is very risky, especially if Lanni and GJ are peaceful - you lose the barrels, the buffer, raid spot, safe CPs... Lannister armies are massive in mid-game, Tyrell has the best range (+QOT), Martell is pure muscle - your success relies on dealing with those threats. Diplomacy, while not binding, is the easiest to pull off, methinks.

But I also agree with Zizzeus that two-pronged attack on the North is usually more beneficial to Baratheon than Greyjoy. All reasons were laid out nicely before. I'll only add one thing: GJ needs to bite deep in the North to get 6 castles and he still needs to poach one (Riverrun?) to win it all, while lucky Baratheon has plenty of options (3 core, SE-HH-Reach to poach, 3 in the North plus Eyrie). In other words, GJ needs to "dominate" the North, while Baratheon is more than happy with "access". It's hardly a principle though - all games are different.

Great guide and a fascinating read.
Ser Hodor
Son Of Hodor

Posts: 756
Games: 1,331
Rank Points: 10,054
Member since: 2016-Mar-20

Topic: House Analysis - Baratheon
Posted: 2020-Jun-05 14:48
Yes, I think GJ tactics are so much simpler that I had just seen Baratheons fail going north more frequently when I first made the guide.  Nowadays it especially has seemed to become more fashionable for Starks to leave the eastern seas more lightly defended, which I think is an enormous mistake. And while I still put a high priority on wiping out the Stark navy in Shivering Sea, I have developed a greater position for just how much Narrow Sea provides access to - 3 castles, 4 barrels, two crowns and the ability to disrupt a dominant Greyjoy's empire in two spots is more than enough to secure a win most of the time.
Necrarch
Knight of Ni

Posts: 2,044
Games: 135
Rank Points: 1,003
Member since: 2019-Feb-01

Topic: House Analysis - Baratheon
Posted: 2020-Jun-05 15:23
Illustration of a successful Bara invade north:
https://game.thronemaster.net/?review=1&game=234199

League of Ice and Fire, Division 2 (so all experienced players). Ended with 8 (!) castles and 11 points out of my current 30 in 6 games.

And a less successful one (same context):
https://game.thronemaster.net/?review=1&game=234201
Mainly due to the Bara did not secure his position first on mainland before sailing north.

Agree that if you are in Narrow Sea, you need to wipe out quickly the Stark fleet, by taking White Harbor (for ships in port) and Shivering.

Being able to support in NS is royal for Bara.


Jester
Blacksmith

Posts: 66
Games: 23
Rank Points: 160
Member since: 2018-Mar-03

Topic: House Analysis - Baratheon
Posted: 2020-Jun-05 15:29
the ability to disrupt a dominant Greyjoy's empire in two spots is more than enough to secure a win most of the time.
THIS

In northern conquest, Greyjoy's only "safe" foothold is the Stoney Shore. Bara gets the Vale and much more potent seas. There is always more space to gather forces, retreat, launch counterattacks and CP - given that Stark is no longer a threat. If all goes well, you just need to rip 1/2 bolts off GJ's machine (Cailin + the other castle) to run away with a W.

* of course, "all goes well" is a rather rare occurence in GOT.
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