Hello everyone, thought I'd open the floor to discuss something I don't see a massive amount of discussion around - how and when to bluff when choosing House cards AND how to tell when your opponent might throw a lowball.

Some of the ways I evaluate whether or not to lowball:

1. Is it possible for me to force a win? If so what is my opponents best defensive card to play?
2. If I lowball and lose will I lose troops? Stark and tyrell are great for baiting in this regard.
3. Can my routed troops be attacked? If so almost never bluff unless the situation is dire.
4. A 'mixed bluff' - ie I am happy to beat certain cards and lose to others ie playing a 2 card to beat anything lower than my opponents 3 or 4
5. How strategically important is the win? I will rarely bluff as baratheon if I'm taking the narrow sea for example.

Just some opening thoughts keen to hear yours!

What do you think is the best way to spot a bluff from your opponent?

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Not today.

Some more factors:

Also, very important, what does the opponent (and my) set of cards look after the trade.

An opponent will be more inclined to bluff if playing the high card makes his hand significantly lower (i.e. GJ holding for long on Balon), while close to the cycle you want to use your cards so that you don't stay with your good cards in hand as the last if not absolutely necessary.

Finally, wildling are also important, as with the current version (not on the Beta), the odds of getting back good cards is higher than with the wildling cards.

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Judge
LoI&F: Seasons 10 and 11 King
France WCup team
2021: Bronze
2022: Silver

All good points Necrarch. What are the odds on the wildling attack returning house cards? 50-50?

On another note winning a fight with a lowball bluff effectively doublesthe power of your best cards - the threat of the card being used allows you to win an extra fight through the bluff firstly and then secondly when you actually play the card to win the 2nd fight.

One particular example is loras and garlan. The mere fact loras exists makes garlan a better card.

If your opponent is aware that loras is sufficient to force the win he casts such a massive shadow over the board that being able to lowball with garlan instead can be an amazing play especially against arienne martell.

Just some thoughts but hope they're helpful for anyone reading

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Not today.

[quote]
2. If I lowball and lose will I lose troops? Stark and tyrell are great for baiting in this regard./quote]

Conversely, Lannister makes for a particularly bad house to bluff against, as Gregor and Cersei are two of the worst cards to lose to when you could have won with a higher card.

The most common "mixed bluff" I see is Martell attacking Tyrell with one of their 2 cards when the Viper would force a win, often at sea. Even if you don't win, you are usually more than happy to exchange a mediocre card to get rid of Loras or Mace, who won't do any damage unless you are attacking with a footman.  And Martell has extra incentive to try to keep the Viper around longer, since the structure of their hand is such that they have 3 of the best cards in the game paired with 4 nothings that they don't want to be left with for any length of time.

The best bluffing card is of course Patchface, as if you succeed in drawing out a large card with your 0, you can compound the imbalance by taking away the next best weapon/defense in your opponent's arsenal as well.  But Bara also has other good options for mixed bluffs. Brienne is good for attacking Martell, with the thinking that losing a single unit to make a 2 for 4 strength exchange is not so bad, and she inflicts some punishment if they decide to drop Arianne or Doran instead.  And Renly is also a case where you can get yourself a little bonus even if your opponent decides to throw a very weak card, on top of which Davos makes it so exchanging a big card for one of your opponent's weakest does not tilt the balance of remaining cards as severely as, for example, when GJ uses Victarion to blow out a defending Kevan or Blackfish by 5 combat str without causing any casualies.

Hello everyone, thought I'd open the floor to discuss something I don't see a massive amount of discussion around - how and when to bluff when choosing House cards AND how to tell when your opponent might throw a lowball.

Some of the ways I evaluate whether or not to lowball:

1. Is it possible for me to force a win? If so what is my opponents best defensive card to play?
2. If I lowball and lose will I lose troops? Stark and tyrell are great for baiting in this regard.
3. Can my routed troops be attacked? If so almost never bluff unless the situation is dire.
4. A 'mixed bluff' - ie I am happy to beat certain cards and lose to others ie playing a 2 card to beat anything lower than my opponents 3 or 4
5. How strategically important is the win? I will rarely bluff as baratheon if I'm taking the narrow sea for example.
Sometimes there is a temptation to bluff in one of these situations where bluffing is dangerous, precisely because your opponent will surmise that you would not bluff for that reason.

Just remember to never get involved with a Sicilian when death is on the line!