Power is important, but sometimes the speed is too.

As much as i agree on the Power-thing, its also important for Stark to seize his lands for extra supply and good areas for CPing.

But in general, leaving a PT in WH and marching is a risky move (similar to Martell), where an early clash can cripple you for the rest of the game.

But then again, even with a CP in WH, Stark is still crippled in terms of CP for tnhe first few rounds.



To Martell, i would be really interested in seeing the statsdifference for a March-scenario out of DM, but with the difference of leaving a CP or not.

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"Build a man a fire, and he'll be warm for a day. Set a man on fire, and he'll be warm for the rest of his life." , Terry Pratchett

Stark opening w Muster in Winterfell and CP in WH is clearly superior to anything else. Not many people know it though...
I disagree with this, I don't think it's clearly superior to a march order.
I think a march order there in the first round is better for Stark, but only if you use it to take Karhold and if Baratheon is not hostile. If you use it to take anything else (like Widow's Watch or Mountains of the Moon or Moat Cailin), or Baratheon is gunning for you, then I agree it's better to CP .

If you take Karhold, you're in a better position if a Game of Thrones and/or Mustering hits, and Supply makes no difference at all. You're only at a disadvantage if a Clash of Kings or a Feast for Crows hits, and that's not very likely, considering Lannister will most likely not choose CoK if Dark Wings Dark Words comes up, and FfC is 1/10. Even if a CoK hits, you're not doing so bad if Bara is not hyper-aggressive (ie. gunning for you even before (s)he takes KL), and it's even less of a problem if Lannister and Greyjoy fight.

Well, the great thing about the game design is that the Westeros cards bring about so many different variations from the 2nd round on that you can't really make any blanket "this game is about X" pronouncements without weighing it down with caveats.  Sometimes a single power token difference can cripple you for an entire game.  Sometimes three Game Of Thrones come out before any Clash and early CP becomes moot.  Sometimes there is no supply in the back half of the game at all, and Stark can't close out despite never losing any of his extensive territory.  You have to play to provide yourself flexibility, while also recognizing when a particular outcome is so beneficial it is worth gambling on.  Or conversely, when playing for the most likely outcome still doesn't move the needle enough to make it worth abandoning a long shot.

Related to that thought, I think one of the explanations for the Bara KL opening has not been addressed. It could be that going for KL is a high risk/high reward scenario.  The simplified version is this like this:

Assume that taking KL and getting the right card combo (i.e, Muster/GOT) means an automatic win.  But that combo only comes 1 time in 6, and Bara loses every game where it doesn't.  Whereas the standard muster on DS opening doesn't change Bara's starting chances of 1 in 6 at all.

By the only standard this chart measures, these moves are exactly equal in value. But the standard opening is clearly more attractive, because it forecloses the possibility that your chances to win are crippled 5 minutes into a game that is going to drag on for 3-4 hours.  This is why people don't like to play Lanni - no other house is as vulnerable to being ground into nonentity status right off the bat.

Obviously, the real stats aren't as simplistic as that. But the principle remains that the standard Bara opening is calculated, however unconsciously, such that no combination of Westeros cards is catastrophic.  The worst is probably Muster-Last Days-Web Of Lies, but even that isn't the end of the world.

With the King's Landing opening, any combo that includes Clash Of Kings, Feast For Crows or Web Of Lies is cause for significant concern.  Muster and GOT are, conversely cause for celebration.  But the numbers in the chart don't make, imo, a very compelling case for courting that type of variance right out of the gate.  Particularly because even if you do hit a jackpot, you can run into the Greyjoy problem - going out to a big lead in the early going can just serve to unite the Realm against you.  And that is even worse for Bara than GJ, as he is the only house* open to assault from 4 sides.


*Arguably, Tyrell is too, but as Greyjoy's route through Sunset Sea is less direct and vulnerable to raiding/backstabbing from both Stark and Lanni, sailing south is less viable

Well, the great thing about the game design is that the Westeros cards bring about so many different variations from the 2nd round on that you can't really make any blanket "this game is about X" pronouncements without weighing it down with caveats.
But thats actually the point and makes these stats so interesting.
The orders for the firsdt round happen always under the circumstances and if a certain opening has a higher winratio it absolutely tells us something about that opening.

Basically: Because everything else doesnt get influenced by the choice of your opening orders, the opening orders stand in a direct correlation to the winrate.

The only hing we can discuss about is, if premade alliances (met before order placement) or the skilllevel of a player influence the opening orders.

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"Build a man a fire, and he'll be warm for a day. Set a man on fire, and he'll be warm for the rest of his life." , Terry Pratchett

Stark opening w Muster in Winterfell and CP in WH is clearly superior to anything else. Not many people know it though...
I disagree with this, I don't think it's clearly superior to a march order.
I think a march order there in the first round is better for Stark, but only if you use it to take Karhold and if Baratheon is not hostile. If you use it to take anything else (like Widow's Watch or Mountains of the Moon or Moat Cailin), or Baratheon is gunning for you, then I agree it's better to CP .

If you take Karhold, you're in a better position if a Game of Thrones and/or Mustering hits, and Supply makes no difference at all. You're only at a disadvantage if a Clash of Kings or a Feast for Crows hits, and that's not very likely, considering Lannister will most likely not choose CoK if Dark Wings Dark Words comes up, and FfC is 1/10. Even if a CoK hits, you're not doing so bad if Bara is not hyper-aggressive (ie. gunning for you even before (s)he takes KL), and it's even less of a problem if Lannister and Greyjoy fight.
This is short sighted my friend.

Its mainly about turn 2 play out, not that much about turn 1. Even though that clash 1 scenario 33% pretty much makes you at Bara's hands and already that is a reason to never march in WH turn 1.

But let me explain the turn 2 considerations:

1) not leaving WH but CP there turn 1 is a difference of 2 power tokens. So CP at Karhold would only make up what you lost turn 1.
2) now turn 2 we Muster ship from WH and March 3 units at Wfell for a great efficiency. One FM goes to Karhold and power wise you are in the same spot as in your opening but didnt risk the turn 1 clash disaster.
3) you didnt drop a token where FM should be. Sometimes makes a difference to have max 20 not max 19.

Overall leaving WH with token left behind is so terrible opening that only beginners would play. It has no advantages over CP at WH.

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Don´t fight in the North, or the South. Fight every battle, everywhere, always, in your mind. Everyone is your enemy, everyone is your friend, every possible series of events is happening all at once. Live that way and nothing will surprise you.

Stark opening w Muster in Winterfell and CP in WH is clearly superior to anything else. Not many people know it though...

Martell CP in Salt shore also clearly better than impatiently marching 1st round.

If you can trust Baratheon to have only one march, yes. Otherwise he can take your sea and screw your game for the next few rounds. Therefore I tend to march from white harbor and saltshore.

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“The only way to treat disease is to understand disease.“

I logged in after months just to tell you you are my hero, but please, you need serious help, this is not human.

Great job, really. Text me privately if you want more compliments.

I'm in love with this thread. I believe it's pure gold and I'll read it with all my attention in these next days!

I gave it a quick look and I'm really surprised by some of your results. There're openings I never care to use that are the ones with the highest winrates. This changes my view of this game, again after years of experience!

To be honest I have never used Cornies suggested opening with the starks. Now I think it might be the best opening with stark.

Also I am also turning towards CP on salt shore as a better option rather than march.

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fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me

Let's take a look at the data for a second before I address your point my dear Cornie.

In the case of Martell, the win-rate data supports what you are saying. The vast majority of people put a M+0 in Salt Shore, which makes this the standard Martell opening and gives you the base win percentage. Then you have the more 'savvy' individuals who realized that CP in Salt Shore is the better overall move, so you see an increase in the win percentage with that opening move (~1%) when compared to the base. In fact, if you look at Greyjoy and Tyrell, the same thing emerges, gaining power in round 1 leads to higher win-rates. So it does fit your assertion that this game is about power.  

With Stark, you have an almost identical situation to Martell (March+0 in White Harbor is the standard move), and the CP in White Harbor is the main alternative for your savvy individual. In this case however, there's no improvement in the win rate, there's actually a decrease of approximately 1.5% in the win-rate. How do you explain this discrepancy?

You can't claim it's about the complexity of the move, or that people misplay more with Stark... unless you have some evidence to back this up other than your gut feeling

If anything, the March+0 order set gives you more room to mess up, since the CP is static. If anything, the fact that you have a better win-rate with a March+0 in White Harbor is even more evidence that the move is better than CP. You have more ways of messing up the M+0. The easiest example of this is moving the footman to Widow's Watch, and leaving a power token behind in WH. I think we can all agree that this is inferior to CP in White Harbor in almost every way.

Edit:
Now as for your point, I agree with what you are saying there, it's a pretty solid analysis. Now if you also take the Eyrie turn 2 like I usually try to do with a friendly Bara, get a footman to Karhold and CP* in White Harbor, I'm sold, CP in WH 1st turn is the net superior move.

I do understand your point about the Clash of Kings. It could screw you over if the Clash comes, Bara bids like a beast, and then stabs you and attacks you in the narrow sea. That's a lot of ifs though.

As I mentioned previously, I like the fact that M+0 to Karhold also puts you in a better spot for both Mustering and for a GoT, while a CoK shouldn't be disastrous with a friendly Bara.

Last edited by Zsa on 2018-Feb-27 03:05, edited 1x in total

I think Cornie drastically overstates the threat of an aggressive Bara.  Even if the cards come out to support that move, most players won't be launching a northern invasion before they secure KL (and Blackwater Bay, to secure him against Martell).  The invasion normally comes from Greyjoy, via the Bay Of Ice. And WH is fairly safe from that move, which means a token there has potential to pay dividends more than once over the course of the next several rounds.  It's also a very versatile muster point, since it can deposit a ship in three different locations, or a ground unit. This can be crucial, since another "free" ship can allow you to get a march out of WF one turn faster, rather than doing another CP* there to bolster your defenses.

In support of Karhold, it remains a protected CP spot even if you lose a sea territory on either side.  If the game is about power, it would stand to reason that getting your farming operation going quickly is the top priority?  Perhaps even worth risking a setback from an early clash?

As to Martell, I do think that leaving a token in Saltshore is a definite mistake. But I think taking Starfall is pretty close in value to CP.  The difference between 5 and 6 tokens in a second turn clash (which the odds are 3:1 against, we should probably note) is significant, but not disastrous, and Doran is there to dull the pain if a hostile neighbor dominates the bidding.  Starfall is important because like WH, it provides a space to muster ships should you have a Tyrell that is friendly or bracing for an assault with sea defense.

The other important thing about Starfall is that it puts you closer to Prince's Path, which is a crucial point for establishing a border, grabbing the extra barrel and if Tyrell is friendly, giving Martell it's only good CP point outside of Sunspear.  If you open with CP on Saltshore, you probably aren't getting there until turn 4.  And if Tyrell is not friendly, he probably gets there first, and kicking him out is way harder than defending it.

I think Cornie drastically overstates the threat of an aggressive Bara.  Even if the cards come out to support that move, most players won't be launching a northern invasion before they secure KL
na ja, but if clash comes turn 2 it is highly unlikely there would be another clash turn 3 (and not too likely turn 4 too), isn´t it?

your wolf pelts will be often hanging behind Bara´s belt by end of turn 4 if you miss good position in the first clash as Stark. It is not uncommon for Bara to win the game on turn 5 with DS, KL, CCP, Eyrie, WH, MC and one of HH/WFELL/SE... in fact I saw turn 4 victories for Bara in the event of mustering

Crippling yourself to 4 tokens in the turn 1 is just always wrong for any house

Last edited by Cornie4ever on 2018-Feb-27 12:01, edited 1x in total

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Don´t fight in the North, or the South. Fight every battle, everywhere, always, in your mind. Everyone is your enemy, everyone is your friend, every possible series of events is happening all at once. Live that way and nothing will surprise you.

Overall the winrate is more influenced by alliances & what other houses do.

You can place bad orders as Stark and have an easy victory in case of GJ Lanni war.

You can place good orders as Stark but if GJ is upon you, the victory is harder.

There is so much variance in this game that you´d need thousands of games for each opening to make it representative.

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Don´t fight in the North, or the South. Fight every battle, everywhere, always, in your mind. Everyone is your enemy, everyone is your friend, every possible series of events is happening all at once. Live that way and nothing will surprise you.

Count me in the camp that strongly believes in the Martell/Stark CP opening. Those houses are so disproportionally affected by a Turn 2 Clash that hedging against it is vastly superior in my opinion.

Both Martell and Stark have very good track position in regards to neighbors but early CP farming that is vastly inferior. Consider the ‘worst case scenario’ should you CP. The worst thing that happens is that a muster comes as well as Game of Thrones. For Stark, the muster is completely neutral. You have the same number of units as you would have as moving do Karhold. For Martell, you do sacrifice 1 muster point, but you are on an even muster with Tyrell and one unit behind Baratheon since he starts with one more. Not a disaster at all.

Game of Thrones is where you might think that Stark loses out by CPing, but actually you end up with 7 tokens instead of 6, barring any mustering into WF port. At the end of round 2, you have 8 instead of 7, but you risk much less. For Martell, GoT is terrible either way since you can not access another crown until round two marching from Sunspear or Starfall.

At the end of it all, though, the worst case scenario also means you keep your star orders and your neighbors have a combined 1 Star, which means that a slightly slower opening does not punish you very badly at all. Couple that with the defensive nature of these two houses and I think a conservative opening is a better approach. Obviously, Westeros cards can invalidate any strategy, but I’ll always tend to favor playing Stark and Martell as turtling houses.