There was a game I had a while back, and I'm still scratching my head as to what the optimal play was.

Let me set the scenario.
I'm playing Lannister, GJ is open to an early alliance. I accept.
Other players are also diplomatically friendly towards me, I accept their alliances in the hopes of slowly building my power before picking a target/fighting the one who strikes me.
Turn 6, I hit a block. I've got all normal Lanni territories, but I'm also hitting supply limits. If I want to muster more armies, I need to take more territories.

Here, I blunder away any advantage.
I pick Martell at the Reach as my target, bc I'm taking a castle away from the leader.
Surely Mar's not crazy enough to Doran me and give the sword to his arch-nemesis Tyrell. Surely Stark is keeping GJ busy enough that he won't turn on me.
Mar Doraned me, GJ betrayed me, Tyrell took back the reach.
tl;dr I got obliterated.

I understand now that it was a bad play and why it was a bad play.
I don't understand
(a) If my assessment of the situation was accurate and
(b) What would have been the optimal strategy?


For Reference:
https://game.thronemaster.net/?review=1&game=94474

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Not sure if brother is Azor Ahai...or smoked ham.

Mediocre Tailors for House Greyjoy - We do so-sew.

Idk what was going on in chat, but it looks to me like YOU betrayed GJ by raiding his support in IMB. If I'm GJ, a suddenly unfriendly Lannister is a much bigger concern than a known aggressive Stark. With support from IMB, he can hold off Stark forever, but if you're gunning for him, I can see why he considered you his priority.

Going back earlier than that, you used a group of 2 and 3 on your sea and port. That was eating up a lot of your supply, and as shown, didn't stop GJ from taking the Golden Sound.

As for taking the reach, and leaving a seige engine there, you seemed very over-extended. The reach also only contains a castle- 1 mustering point ain't worth much.

You got a Tyrell knight killed taking the blackwater in round 5, raided a Baratheon consolidate in round 6, and raided a GJ support in round 7 while picking a fight with Martell in a castle Tyrell probably feels ownership of. You don't break alliances unless you think you get more from that action of breaking them than you did from them. That certainly wasn't the case, other than maybe getting the blackwater. The other 3 actions- you were just painting a target on your head for essentially no gain.

Good analysis.

I hadn't realized I was that aggressive that game. I think I underestimated how hostile my raids were and overvalued the benefits of successful raids.

Psychologically I was probably too antsy about lacking room for growth. It may have been better to forgo mustering and acquiring additional territory purely for diplomatic purposes.

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Not sure if brother is Azor Ahai...or smoked ham.

Mediocre Tailors for House Greyjoy - We do so-sew.

Sitting on the full capacity of 6 supply and having full power tokens would have been a good place to go from. With Stoney Sept support and rotating marches, you can hold all your land around it. GJ probably wouldn't have seen that as enough reason to betray you, so choosing a single enemy when you decide to make your move while holding all other fronts strong wouldve given you the best results, I think.

Last edited by deranger on 2018-Oct-22 15:36, edited 1x in total