There are two standard openings for Baratheon in second edition board game. One takes Kings landing  and other musters in Dragonstone. We are going to compare them assuming different turn two westeros cards.  First lets imagine muster for opening A ( kl taken ) it ends with 10 mustering points and B (muster in ds) ends with also 10 mustering points. Second let’s look game of thrones in A we get 9 tokens and in B we get 9 or 10 depending if we mustered in port or not. Combining this two we can at best come out with A 10 muster and 10 tokens  against B 10 muster and 10 tokens.
Equal right ? Not so much if we try supply and cok.

Supply is simple +2 mustering points for B and Cok is simple 2 tokens more for B.

So for A to be as good as B it needs to hit muster and got.

So we are left with deck 3 featuring 3 wildlings cards, web, no raid, no march +1, feast , no defense and sword picks. Wildlings B wins out on tokens, web is hard however you put it but worst scenario is supply clash web on A and supply clash on B is bad but manageable. No raid doesn’t make a big difference but never the les it is still B victory.  Feast clash supply is another killer combo if you played A while if you played B you are most likely fine.  Defense is another bad scenario for A because if you didn’t get muster you are losing your sea if stark doesn’t cooperate while with B you defend even if he hates your guts.  Sword picks is already covered if we didn’t have muster and if we did you know who has it after fiefdoms bid so you can adjust bids on kings court better if you can bid more.
So clear winner is…
No You can force muster in 66% of cases and it is smart move sometimes even if you didn’t take kl but other westeros cards don’t look good.
Lannister who pick cok is either genus or madman and most likely he isn’t picking got either because it feeds Greyjoy a lot.
Still why gamble ?
Three things if it goes good you have a running start 66% of the time and second it gives you better position for next turn to grab supply while it is still relatively possible vs lanni in alliance with grey.
For the last point of advantage we will have to look at other houses who are anticipating B because let’s face it is better. They don’t go for castles ( Stark Martell) they collect tokens just like you would and then you 66% of time make muster and empower Tyrell and Greyjoy to take care of your problems for you.

This is why it is still sometimes picked when it is clearly suboptimal and brakes even only in best cases. Strategy will get you far but gambling o gambling can take you farther or ruin you. Hopefully if you fail someone will put you on life support and you can come back to even position you will have if you play B.

I think one other advantage of taking KL on turn one is that you can CP on Turn 2 and get an early headstart on the economy, but this also means missing out on expansion and assuming that Tyrell hasn't gone into the reach to raid you for this very purpose.

I agree that I think the Dragonstone mustering is safer. I wonder how these openings compare to a turn one attack on Stark or Martell, however. I think the DS muster is hands down the best Baratheon opening, unless you're willing to take a big risk on the KL expansion or start a war you likely can't win on turn one.

CP in Kingswood and Dragonstone is definitely safer for the various combinations of Turn 2 Westeros cards, and that is how I open Baratheon games.

However, the calculus is not quite as simple as just adding up the possibilities for total muster points or power tokens.  The main advantage of going for King's Landing is increased mobility.  If you avoid a disastrous Westeros Phase out of the gate, you are in a position to deploy more, and more useful, orders on Turn 2 than if you still have to focus the bulk of your orders on taking KL.

But even including that, on balance I prefer the conservative opening.  There's no opening round of Westeros cards that makes me truly kick myself for not taking King's Landing straight away, but I HATE going into an early clash at a cash deficit.  That kind of disadvantage can be self-sustaining, as you find yourself having to go all-in to secure a single star or blade, and then you are only able to CP a couple tokens before the next one, when you are once again the poor man...

Agreed, other openings than the CP/CP*/M0 are more risky bets than anything else.
However, I have seen sometimes some of them work (like double march to take Narrow Sea with M+1 turn 1 which can be an absolute disaster for a CP / CP* / M+1 Stark).

But more often they will miserably fail on standard approaches, because Bara is usually among the richest in CP, and need that, instead of being a poor lad.

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Judge
LoI&F: Seasons 10 and 11 King
France WCup team
2021: Bronze
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The post was meant to illustrate how evaluation on pure numbers is "standard" and is technically better, but since it is expected to be played it opens very strong second opening. This opening counts on others to play standard to propel yourself a bit in front of others while at the same time if everything fails counting on your neighbors to protect you when the others try's to disrupt the balance so early in the game by exploiting your misfortune.

Relying on others is never my preferred route, if I can cover my own ass against all contingencies anyway.

The post was meant to illustrate how evaluation on pure numbers is "standard" and is technically better, but since it is expected to be played it opens very strong second opening. This opening counts on others to play standard to propel yourself a bit in front of others while at the same time if everything fails counting on your neighbors to protect you when the others try's to disrupt the balance so early in the game by exploiting your misfortune.
In my opinion it would be exactly your neighbors who would try to disrupt the balance by exploiting your weakness. I mean Greyjoy can't really disrupt you martell and stark can and will. Think further if there is no mustering until round 3 you won't have the ships needed to defend your home waters

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Mother of Dragons PBF #1 – Arryn

What I am getting at is this: if you evaluate the two basic openings based on where they leave you at the start of Turn 2, then CP/mustering is easily superior.

But, what makes it harder to evaluate is that a lot of the benefit of the KL opening manifests itself in you being in a better position on Turn 3 than you would be with a slower start.

For me, sea security is just too vital to mess around taking chances with it.  Also, Blackwater is nice and all, but it is still quite an uphill fight to take more casles from there.  Taking Narrow Sea or ESS, should the opportunity arise, provides you with at least somewhat less restricted access to 3 castles and barrels apiece.  That's why I don't normally stress overly much about Blackwater with Bara; I find they need to win at sea before they win on land, and that can be done even on 2 supply, with the proper planning, diplomacy, and the pinch of luck that you need to be able to pull off anything in this wretched game.

Last edited by Ser Hodor on 2020-Apr-06 20:02, edited 1x in total

The best position in subsequent round is the primary reason for this move, but empowering houses who can't muster also serves to put them ahead of your neighbors if it works. If it doesn't you have to count on outside help. Ask yourself if someone next to you falls behind early you either exploit it yourself or you stop others from exploiting it. No point in taking his land only to overstreatch yourself and help his other neighbor to take the win. Better safeguard him and hopefully he will repay you somehow.