I did a bit statistics with the games played on this site and took a sample of games (about 8000) unrated and rated with second edition house cards and no ToB and provide here a full list of openings played by the different houses, how often they are played and their statistical winrate. Be careful though and do not over-interpret the results.

Stark
https://drive.google.com/open?id=1nhs5a90703wUlYs6FS1UnLiiqVO2bjbk

Tyrell
https://drive.google.com/open?id=1YvnhWzPJB8qJhJ7zgH5me5lRqvlLly3x

Martell
https://drive.google.com/open?id=12An1p7soEFKc9XVgs_YC8LX4DpAXSDkX

Lannister
https://drive.google.com/open?id=14Om1tPBZKPF-1d0i-klKHfP9nf3xtnNK

Greyjoy
https://drive.google.com/open?id=11GirFB3L4UdHT6vYQiy8BgAEw7Od1NLD

Baratheon
https://drive.google.com/open?id=1MhYs_lLNcQJZ1Dgkr3zkYJJdH96XsZWY

Last edited by PPPPaco on 2018-May-11 11:55, edited 4x in total

Some nice numbers!
What I found most interesting, considering the standard openings I am seeing in most games, they are still "the best" for Stark and Tyrell(Tyrells orders do not seem to matter lol)
Martell seems to be doing better when placing a CP in Salt Shore first
Lannister and Greyjoy have a high variety of possibilities(did you consider Lannister before or after raven?)
But Baratheon has something very out of order: The capture of KL in the first round results in more wins than the usual 1st round muster

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AFFC PBF - #10
You do not need to know everything, but where to read it.-Albert Einstein-

Reading is overrated.-sarcasm off-

thanks for the great work, gonna read this for sure.
But can you format your first post and remove the spoilers? Otherwise we cant klick on the link but have to copypaste it.

Are these stats from ALL games or just 2nd-Edition? How did you extract the data?


my thoughts on this:

Stark
It seems like the CP* in Winterfell is mandatory with WH being a possible alternative.


Martell
I was always curious about Martells start because leaving Salt Shore in first round can be very dangerous in case of a Clash. The difference are 2 tokens and i feel like this is a lot.

Lannister/Greyjoy
I find it difficult to tell which way is the best since those 2 highly depend on each others orders, so it would indeed be nice having stats for the orders pre and after the raven.


Baratheon
actually the stats of "F" are a bit misleading. basically, you have to add the stats from "B" to it, because they are basically the same.
But still, taking KL in first round is looking good!

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"Build a man a fire, and he'll be warm for a day. Set a man on fire, and he'll be warm for the rest of his life." , Terry Pratchett

I am just checking out some of the info - pretty amazing, thank you! This is great stuff.

On a  note to accesability: Not quite sure it is my inablity with tech or just unfortunately edited, but when you simply try to click the link after opening the bubble, you just close it again, so copying the links is a little clunky.

Ups and while I was writing this...sorry nvm: Solemly focus on the compliments!

Last edited by Williwurst on 2018-Feb-21 10:46, edited 1x in total

The problem you described WIlli is because of how the spoiilers work. They open/close by clicking on the text, so thats why.

Can you also remove the code PPP? It should work by then...

Thanks.

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"Build a man a fire, and he'll be warm for a day. Set a man on fire, and he'll be warm for the rest of his life." , Terry Pratchett

Click for details.

Some nice numbers!
What I found most interesting, considering the standard openings I am seeing in most games, they are still "the best" for Stark and Tyrell(Tyrells orders do not seem to matter lol)
Martell seems to be doing better when placing a CP in Salt Shore first
Lannister and Greyjoy have a high variety of possibilities(did you consider Lannister before or after raven?)
But Baratheon has something very out of order: The capture of KL in the first round results in more wins than the usual 1st round muster

The Lannister numbers are taking before the raven was used. Also be careful with less popular openings and their winrate, the statistics there is worse and the result is less significant. So I wouldnt say taking KL first round with baratheon is better, but comparable to CP* in DS.



Are these stats from ALL games or just 2nd-Edition? How did you extract the data?
All games starting at game id 90000. Up to id 150000. Just picking 6p games with 2nd edition house cards and no ToB. I did some html scraping to extract the gamedata.

Last edited by PPPPaco on 2018-Feb-19 18:50, edited 1x in total

Of course the lower the number the less significant. But 800 games arent nothing and if you compare D+E against F there is still a difference of 10points.
While you cant say for sure, you definetly start to see a pattern. In my opinion at least.

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AFFC PBF - #10
You do not need to know everything, but where to read it.-Albert Einstein-

Reading is overrated.-sarcasm off-

So I wouldnt say taking KL first round with baratheon is better, but comparable to CP* in DS.

i disagree here. Yes, you have kess data, but 1000 games is a lot. Calculating with B and F together end at around 20% winrate, which is 2% higher.

The real question is why F is so much better than B, but i could think of 2 reasons:
1) Bara uses the att-1 to make clear to Stark/Martell that hes peaceful
2) This orderplacement happened more often in "lower skilled" games where a decent opening has a higher impact.
F is not worse in any means compared to B and one could even argue that its stronger.

I included this topic into our Collection, since it has a great value! https://www.thronemaster.net/?goto=community&sub=forum&fid=3&tid=8527&token=5a8b11a1#top

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"Build a man a fire, and he'll be warm for a day. Set a man on fire, and he'll be warm for the rest of his life." , Terry Pratchett

This orderplacement happened more often in "lower skilled" games where a decent opening has a higher impact.
Yes, maybe it just means baratheons winrate is higher on "lower skilled" games.

Very interesting analysis.

Can you maybe provide some additional infos, like if there was a western alliance or attacks between Lannister and Greyjoy in the first two or three rounds?

Also rated vs. Unrated could provide some interesting differences.

Would it also be possible to provide your analysis in a tabular form?

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“The only way to treat disease is to understand disease.“

Nice set of data, the results are pretty much what I expected them to be. What I mean by that is the following:

1) The people with really bad openings have a significantly lower win rate. This is why stuff like no CP in the Dornish Marches, or 3 marches from Stark at the start are so low in win rate. This is usually a sign of bad or new players. Same with Greyjoy placing a defense order in his starting set... I've mentioned before in another thread that any defense order in Greyjoy's starting set is a sign of a potato player, and bar H from the Greyjoy graph seems to corroborate my assertion .  

2) The results for Lannister openings is a hodge-podge - there's not much correlation you will get there between the strength of the opening and the overall performance. This is as expected because, the main factor which infulences Lanni's game is whether or not they have an alliance with Greyjoy. This factor is so much more important than the opening orders that it "drowns" out the initial orders chosen. Add to it the raven, and you get the results you see . I haven't looked in detail, but I'm guessing the orders which Lannister usually uses when in an alliance with GJ have higher win rates than the ones usually used when fighting GJ.

3) The "standard" openings are usually about the same win rate , which is again as expected. The players who have a few games under their belt know the standard openings and will use them, even if not all of them realize why they are considered optimal. Since most players use the standard openings, and there's a wide range of player skill in this group, you'd expect the win rates for the several standard openings to have little difference in their win rate.

4) Baratheon's starting order set might seem out of whack (especially order set F), until you realize that there's really only 2 openings presented there: take KL in the first turn, or CP* in Dragonstone. So if you average out A, D, E on one side and B, C, F on the other, you'll get that the difference between the two openings is about 1%.

Wonderful job, really!
I am especially surprised by
-baratheon's winning percentages taking kings landing on turn one. It seems a really underpar opening to me;
-greyjoy's winning percentage's with a march in ironman's bay (opening A and G). Maybe it's explained by a greyjoy/lannister alliance, which wouldn't screw over that move?

Martell
I was always curious about Martells start because leaving Salt Shore in first round can be very dangerous in case of a Clash. The difference are 2 tokens and i feel like this is a lot.
You could leave Salt Shore and not leave a token there. It seems like a reasonable move to me. But it could be that a more passive Martell that builds up strength and can contest some bids in the first clash is better suited to win the game in general. The first game I played as Martell, I got a clash in round 2, ended up last in all tracks, and the next clash was in round 10!

Wonderful job, really!
I am especially surprised by
-baratheon's winning percentages taking kings landing on turn one. It seems a really underpar opening to me;
-greyjoy's winning percentage's with a march in ironman's bay (opening A and G). [i]Maybe[i] it's explained by a greyjoylannister alliance, which wouldn't screw over that move I think there's a 1% difference between the two openings for Baratheon. The "take KL first turn" move has never been bad, I'd say it's a better move than CP* IF you have an alliance with Martell. You benefit more from Mustering and Game of Thrones Westeros cards, and you are also able to either take the Blackwater next turn or CP to catch up. You are also not screwed if a Clash comes up since you have 5 tokens and the Iron Throne, which is not a bad place to be.

For Greyjoy with a March in IMB, I don't see how it would screw GJ over, it seems like a solid opening to me. There's two advantages to that order set that I can see:
- you are CPing in port and Greywater which gives you good standing in the next clash.
- the march in IMB is very useful in 2 ways depending on whether you are allied with Lannister or not: if you are allied, and he does not take Riverrun, you can move into the Sunset sea and attack Stark or Tyrell next turn. If you are at war with Lannister, you can just remove the march order, and ensure you move  your units out of Pyke after Lannister if (s)he has 2 march orders on the board.

Last edited by Zsa on 2018-Feb-26 15:53, edited 2x in total

You could leave Salt Shore and not leave a token there. It seems like a reasonable move to me. But it could be that a more passive Martell that builds up strength and can contest some bids in the first clash is better suited to win the game in general. The first game I played as Martell, I got a clash in round 2, ended up last in all tracks, and the next clash was in round 10!

That's what I tend to do.  Supply is important, but the difference between 2 barrels and 3 on the second round, when you still have small armies and room to expand, is minimal.  Whereas one token difference in a clash where everyone is low on cash can be a HUGE shift. Particularly when Doran can make certain positions more valuable to Martell than other houses (i.e., 2nd place on fiefdoms or 5th rather than 6th on king's court).

The same does not go for Stark, imo, because the extra mustering piont is too valuable when you are rushing to get your lands settled and CP farms going while prepping defenses against GJ.  That and Stark's prospects in a clash don't change too much with 4 vs 5.  Either way, their options are generally to make a play to steal the blade or save their $ and pray for another one to come quickly.

Stark opening w Muster in Winterfell and CP in WH is clearly superior to anything else. Not many people know it though...

Martell CP in Salt shore also clearly better than impatiently marching 1st round.

1) This game is about Power.
2) And this game is about how efficiently you March your armies, marching on the land w 3 units way more efficient than placing an order on 2  units only.

Big results for those who can fully appreciate these 2 principles and place orders accordingly.

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Don´t fight in the North, or the South. Fight every battle, everywhere, always, in your mind. Everyone is your enemy, everyone is your friend, every possible series of events is happening all at once. Live that way and nothing will surprise you.