The threads about ranking house card/decks against each other got me thinking about different ways to evaluate various house's merits.  In particular, Zsa broke down decks according to different areas of possible strength (Kill, Survive, Strength Pumping, Hand Manipulation, Board Manipulation) which I found extremely useful for codifying my thoughts on why I think, for example, Lannister cards are better than Greyjoy's when conventional wisdom is very much the opposite.

At the larger level, this led me to start thinking of House strengths spread across 3 basic categories:  House Cards, Board Position, and Starting Track Position.  I include in the last category the extra ship that Greyjoy and Baratheon start with. I am going to make a couple of posts for each house, breaking down how I see their position in each category. Would love to hear thoughts or additions.

I'll begin with Stark, who statistics show to be the strongest house overall.  But nobody likes their cards the best, so what gives?

HOUSE CARDS

Stark’s deck is simplistic but potent.  Cat is the worst card in the game, theoretically a counter to Balon that never seems to actually perform that task.  It doesn’t matter much, though, because Stark still has an impenetrable defensive firewall with its 1 cards, a powerful offensive weapon in Eddard, and Roose ensures that he can use that weapon again and again.  With Edd constantly in the mix, and Robb and Greatjon providing modest offensive capabilities themselves, Stark is on par with Martell as the best deck for inflicting casualties on opponents, while also being the best at keeping your units alive when you lose.  This makes up for the lack of ability to pull off the big, game-changing moves that Lannister or Tyrell’s finesse cards can set up.  Stark’s deck is very hard to misuse, which means even beginners can put up a decent fight (compared to say, Lannister’s, which requires a deft hand to realize it’s full, devastating potential).

The make up of Stark’s deck makes them particularly good at baiting high cards from opponents and defending against such bait themselves.  With Blackfish and Rodrick (who are functional equivalents in non-TOB games), you can throw your troops at any close battle secure that they will survive a loss, and will perhaps draw out a big card from your opponent.  And your neighbors have to play more scared too; if they assume a small bait card they can be punished by Edd’s multiple swords, and Stark can “gamble” him on battles he might not win more freely because Roose can bring him back right away.  On the Greyjoy side, the most they can punish such a gamble with is Euron’s (or maybe Theon's) single sword. On the Bara side, Davos may also have a sword and a chance to win, but only if Stannis is already gone, and part of the point of this type of move is to draw out the biggest card.  Patchface is a deterrent, but on defense he is bound to lose a territory and the army in it if played against Edd, so Baratheon has to think carefully about going that route.

Key Card:  Roose Bolton.  He’s probably the best card in the game, as only Loras contends with him imo.  There’s no real trick to using him, except to be careful you don’t throw him in circumstances where you might win by accident.  Particularly when facing an aggressive Baratheon, watch out for Patchface.  You can’t stop him from discarding Roose, which turns the house card fight into a much more even struggle, but you can compound the damage by winning with Roose and getting Edd discarded. The good thing about Baratheon’s deck is that their big cards won’t inflict casualties or other long-term setbacks if you misjudge a Patchface attempt and wind up facing Stannis or Renly.  If you are facing a close attack but think Patchface is likely, Robb is a good defensive option.  He gives you the best chance to win the battle while forcing Baratheon to pick between discarding Edd and leaving you the option to get him back quickly, or discarding Roose and leaving you your big gun as a deterrent to continued aggression.

BOARD POSITION

Far and away the best.  The North is big – it has 3 sea territories and 11 lands that are accessible to those and no other waterways.  Whereas no other house has 3 seas to call their own, and the next largest kingdom, Dorne, has 7 total lands.  Baratheon and Greyjoy can only lay direct claim to 4.  It takes a while to fill all that space, but when you do they contain 5 muster points, 6 barrels, 5 crowns, and 2 ports.  The 5 mp are standard across all houses, but Lannister is the only other that can get more than 4 supply without waging a war of conquest, and even then Searoad Marches and Blackwater tend to be more heavily contested than The Fingers or Stoney Shore.  Martell and Baratheon can fight over a 2nd port in Storm’s End, but it frequently sits empty as an armistice term.  Between Karhold, Castle Black, the Eyrie, and Winterfell, Stark has access to 4 crown positions that are not adjoining enemy territory and thus protected from raiding.  Most houses only have 1 crown that is similarly protected, and really only Tyrell has one that is not part of their capital stronghold (or in the case of Stoney Sept, a crucial hub that all but demands support rather than CP orders every turn).
  
The upshot is that Stark can generally, even while under siege, count on 4 tokens worth of power generation per turn as long as they have the units to take the orders.  This combines with their unparalleled ability to protect their units in defeat and the sheer amount of territory giving them ample spaces in which to retreat to make Stark the most difficult house to keep down after you’ve gained an advantage.  For every other house except maybe Lannister, losing their capital is a disaster that pretty much dooms any hope of winning the game.  But I’d wager that fully half of the games Stark wins still see them lose control of Winterfell at some point.  And the games where they don’t, they have an even easier time waltzing to victory.  With all that supply and CP options, they are generally in good position to win a tiebreaker in turn 10, even without having taken any significant enemy territory.

The only drawback to Stark’s board position is that they have 3 sea areas that require the attentions of only 6 ships.  But as mentioned earlier, losing Bay Of Ice is not necessarily the crushing blow that losing Shipbreaker or Ironman Bay would be for other houses.   With their ships spread so thin, it is practically impossible for Stark to sustain a successful attack/occupation of Greyjoy or Baratheon’s sea areas, but it’s also rather unnecessary.  There are 6 castles in reach of Stark’s original seas, and the short walk from Moat Cailin to Seagard means that it will be their 7th ten times for every blue moon when it is Dragonstone/Harrenhall/Storm’s End.

Not that Stark wins a lot of games with 7 castles anyway.  Their board position makes Stark the only house that can legitimately turtle its way to victory.  To the point where I will start despairing by round three if I see that everyone else is busy fighting each other and neither Greyjoy nor Baratheon is interested in applying any pressure.  

Key Territory: The Narrow Sea.  The North is so big that even Winterfell is fungible, but if Baratheon succeeds in breaking through on the eastern seaboard, it cuts off many of your retreat/counterattack options.  Particularly since Patchface can remove Roose’s advantage, Baratheon can be harder to eject from the Vale than Greyjoy is from the North.

TRACK POSITIONS

Also excellent.  Stark starts with solid position on the Iron Throne track, ahead of Greyjoy but behind Baratheon, which is probably for the better given Stannis’s ability and that Baratheon can only use that initiative to raid a single sea area.  They also enjoy fiefdom advantage on Baratheon, and 3 stars that mean they don’t have to choose between immediately mustering new troops, laying +2 defense to keep Balon guessing, and keeping a third march out for a final counterattack against either neighbor. The only real weakness in these positions is that Greyjoy starts with the blade.  But he needs a couple rounds to close distance, which combined with his lack of star orders or useful sword icons to inflict casualties in victory, means that a moderately talented Stark should be able to give him a few fits, barring a truly unfortunate Clash and/or interference from Baratheon.

SPECIAL/UNIQUE STRENGTHS

Counter-attacks.  As detailed above, the copious amount of territory, nigh-immortal units, and Roose keeping Edd constantly in the mix mean that Stark can lose significantly more battles than they win and still come out ahead. One key to Stark is keeping a cool head, and not panicking when an opponent gains some significant ground – you have a lot of it, and if you can keep your power production steady, eventually they are going to have nothing but bad cards left while you have a full arsenal, and units that can hit them at will from just about anywhere.

Protected board position. The discussion above lays it out in more detail, but Stark is similar to Martell in that both have a position where they only have 2 direct neighbors/potential enemies, instead of 3-4.  But the increased size and resources of the North are such that Stark mostly enjoys the defensive advantages this corner position provides, without the attendant difficulty in breaking out of that corner to make inroads in enemy territory.  Or more accurately, without the need to conquer much enemy territory to win.


SPECIAL/UNIQUE WEAKNESSES

Split sea forces.  Having to split up your ships across two fronts makes it hard to hold either against a sustained assault.  But it also plays into how losing one need not be the end of the world.

The other thing to note is that Stark is the only house that starts with 2 castles and 1 supply, instead of vice versa.  Since they have so much more room to stretch out than their rivals, this isn’t generally too crippling, even in games with few supply events.

Last edited by Ser Hodor on 2018-Aug-24 20:49, edited 1x in total

EARLY STRATEGIC QUESTIONS

Since Stark is fairly unique in that it doesn’t really need an ally to have a good chance of winning (if both neighbors are distracted, that’s generally good enough).  So diplomacy generally boils down to two questions.

1) Should I allow Baratheon to hold Mountains Of The Moon, if he asks nicely?  Generally, yes.  There are plenty of other barrels around, it’s isolated enough that the worst that can usually come from a betrayal is a raid on the Eyrie, and it’s relatively rare that Baratheon has so few other problems that they develop legitimate designs on the North.  Generally it’s worth letting them hang out if it means they throw you a bone in an early clash, or just decline to raid the Narrow Sea long enough for you to open up the Eyrie.

2) When there is a Lanni/Greyjoy war going on, how early do I involve myself?  Moat Cailin is not a high priority for its own sake, but an early raid on Seagard can really pull Lanni out of the fire.  It’s to your benefit for that war to drag on as long as possible, but you also need to establish your power farm, grab a barrel or two and take the Eyrie before you find yourself facing a full blown invasion.  If things are looking bad for Lanni right away, I am probably still prioritizing those other considerations, but I am willing to start raiding or marching from Bay Of Ice early on, to harass Greyjoy while he attempts to consolidate the Westerlands.


As for opening order placmements, since Stark doesn’t need to pick allies or enemies off the bat, and common sense dictates that the March +1 order goes in the Shivering Seas and CP* in Winterfell, the only question left is to march or CP in White Harbor?  Both have their merits.  Stark’s biggest weakness early on is being susceptible to losing its excellent track positions in an early clash, and there is a big difference in facing it with 6 tokens (probably on par with the average) versus 4 (definitely last or tied for last).  On the flip side, first round Clashes are not terribly common, as Lannister generally has more to lose than gain by picking it on Dark Wings, even if they chose to prioritize CP with their own opening.  And the North is so big that it helps to start populating it immediately.  Furthermore, while you are protecting yourself against a disastrous first round clash with the extra token, it does little to nothing to protect you from a disastrous clash after the second round.  Since you have failed to establish a power base to help you with Game Of Thrones cards or subsequent CP orders, you are still falling behind the crowd.  On balance, I prefer spreading out early, but I’ll switch it up sometimes.

As to the CP* in Winterfell, first priority is a ship in Shivering Sea, to provide support and transport for/from your core territories.  On the other end, I think a ship is also the only sensible option, though it’s more of a toss up whether putting it directly in Bay Of Ice (to be able to raid Greywater/Flint’s immediately, or support Lannister in Sunset Sea), or in the port of Winterfell (in the hopes of grabbing an extra token when Game Of Thrones comes up).

Finally, presuming that you put a march in White Harbor, where to go?  There are arguments for Moat Cailin (if you are very concerned about Greyjoy, being able to raid Seagard right away will be a major hassle for them) or Mountains of The Moon (since supply is your most immediate handicap, and a +1 support there is not as susceptible to raiding from Baratheon, if taking the Eyrie is your primary concern). However, I generally opt to go straight to Karhold.  The only time I feel this really bites me is if specifically Supply and Feast For Crows comes next, and I have to leave him twiddling his thumbs for a round.

I think that is very solid and helpful breakdown for players like me, who are still figuring this game out and trying to master it.
Looking forward for the other houses

This is an excellent write-up. Good work!

I'll begin with Stark, who statistics show to be the strongest house overall.  But nobody likes their cards the best, so what gives?
I think Stark are boring to play because there is very little variety in what they can do. As you point out, Stark has to spread his 6 ships across three areas. This forces Stark to play defensively at sea because he cannot attack and hold either Greyjoy's or Baratheon's areas without significant help from allies. And even then, doing so opens him up to invasion from the other side.

So Stark is forced to play a passive game of attrition, waiting idly and farming tokens while his rivals fight each other -- and hoping to take advantage of an opening. For this reason, there is nothing Stark loves more than a Greyjoy-Lannister war. Exploiting it gives him his best chance at a clean victory.

And as you say, the cards practically play themselves. There is very little strategy to consider when choosing which card to play during which battle.

Respect!

An excellent analysis ser!

In the year since posting this, Stark is the only house where my stats have actually worsened.  What used to be my best house now trails both Greyjoy and Baratheon significantly in wins. I think this is due to thronemaster players getting increasingly aggressive against Stark, particularly on the Baratheon end.  Also it just seems lately that I am not able to win on a 4 or 5 castle tiebreaker very often.

The only thing that has really "changed" about my analysis is a greater emphasis on taking the Eyrie as soon as possible.  If you are not immediately under siege, don't dawdle and grab this back up capital while you can.  Oh, and don't play support in Narrow Sea unless you have the track positions/cards to repel a full strength Baratheon attack without a defense order.

One question on the ideal ship split, as they are two main options:
3 West / 3 East:
Usually my favorite, 1 ship in port of Winterfell for support, 2 in Bay of Ice
One in Shivering for support, two in Narrow Sea.

But some seem to prefer 2 West / 4 East
1 port of Winterfell, 1 BoI, and either 1/3 or 2/2 for Shivering / Narrow

Losing Bay of Ice is bad, but much less than losing Narrow Sea, so I understand both options. An aggressive Bara is harder, but the worst is the GJ and Bara combining to kill you. Had that once, played decently, ended with one knight in Karhold with the minor pleasure to see them fighting each  other on my corpses...

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Judge
LoI&F: Seasons 10 and 11 King
France WCup team
2021: Bronze
2022: Silver

I don't have much expirience on this part but I think that losing boi isn't much of a problem. I like to put some fight becasue GJ might change target in case of some problems taking boi without using balon or due to Lannister droping his guard but it seems to me more important to have 4 or 3 support from shivering sea and possibility to support moat cailin from the narrow sea without risk of losing with baratheon there. Oftenly I even try to kill one of two ships I have there once I lose boi in order to make 3/2 in shivering and narrow.

I prefer 1-2 ships west and 4-5 ships east.

Bara in Narrow Sea often means you are dead while Greyjoy in BoI is a minor inconvenience.

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“The only way to treat disease is to understand disease.“

Thanks for your feedback! Doesn’t it put to little pressure on Flint which is a common turn 10 fight? Or is it just for raid?

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Judge
LoI&F: Seasons 10 and 11 King
France WCup team
2021: Bronze
2022: Silver