Topic: House Analysis - Lannister
Posted: 2020-Jun-02 13:59
It is always better to be at peace with GJ, and this move will definitely be a war declaration. However, if you're already at war, that's not a problem.
Depends also on the march split of GJ.
Anyway, as Lanni, you start by your M-1 from port to Golden Sound. So have two ships with M+1 in Golden Sound.
Now:
Case 1- GJ attacks from IB to GS. If GJ put M-1 in IB, that almost forces him to use Balon (0 vs 2), you retreat to Sunset, and put 1 ship in port with your CP*, so get an interesting position with 3 ships and no Balon.
If it is M0 he can use Euron, which is more annoying - may need to Hound, but know he can bluff. Victarion does not hurt so is less annoying and if you burn Hound it is a bit painful.
Then, go RR and most likely GJ will fight and you'll probably lose. If you win, and there's a muster, game is almost in your pocket (muster ship in IB + upgrade SE in RR, take Pyke instant + ship in port). If you lose, see "lost situation"
Case 2- GJ takes RR (and SG, I suppose), normally with the footman (if he sends KN even better).
Either take HH to be safe, or do an attack, but knowing you will most likely lose and possibly get your FM killed if not Hounded (and Hound is more useful for the ships). Tend to prefer HH here.
Afterwards, GJ either stays in IB and cancels his march, and then you can safely use your M+1 (I suggest putting one ship to Sunset and attack with other. Hound is the most obvious use, but if the GJ does not Balon or Euron he can instant die to Tywin... a hard choice. You can also use both ships to reallt force a Balon), or attacks you in GS with the same situation as case 1.
Lost situation: if you have NOT lost your two fights in GS and RR, your situation is just great. Enjoy and have fun. Most likely, though, you'll have your 2 ships in Sunset, a GJ in Seagard and RR, and only your CP* to save your situation. And GJ must have burnt one or two among his 3 strongest cards, i.e. Victarion, Euron and Balon.
With your CP*, you'll usually put a ship in port + upgrade FM to SE.
If there's a muster (usually Bara in ToB will not choose muster so 30% chances) afterwards, situation is really gloomy, but if not, things are far from lost.
Your cards are normally better, you play before if no CoK: just send your two strong marches in LP and Sunset. Port situation is interesting: putting a S+1 is tempting, but will usually be burnt, R* is not stupid if GJ defends. In Sunset, one ship to IB and one to GS can hurt.
From LP to RR, if KN is there, just send Gregor and don't think too much (losing KN really hurts the Kraken), if FM, you can either send Jaime, Cersei, Tyrion (if only one card blocks you) or Gregor - all will be painful to handle for the GJ. And possibly have either an S or a R* in HH if you went there next turn.
And if you have both Muster & CoK (1/9), curse the gods and start another game, you're in real trouble.
In any case, negociate with GJ at the same time.
Anyway, that's just theory crafting. As for myself, as GJ, I played only once with both marches on ship and CP / CP on troops, worked well as there has been no muster turn 1. As Lanni, same, and was allied to GJ, so no issue.