or tyrell goes after lanni when GJ is whiped

https://game.thronemaster.net/?game=258534

last of examples, I can feel them coming after the clash they have just triggered, don't you?

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"No man gives me a crown. I pay the iron price. I will take my crown."

My point is that as Tyrell, when I am involving myself in a Lanni/GJ war, it is usually against GJ.  That is partially because GJ is usually at an advantage and I feel that jumping in to help the already winning side is usually only good for securing a second place finish.  But more because whoever controls the western seas will usually be the one that holds the western shores in the end.

Last edited by Ser Hodor on 2021-Feb-10 16:50, edited 1x in total

Ser Hodor: I am having trouble as Lannister when GJ takes Riverrun turn 1 (T1). I agree that mustering is likely the best option on Lannistport, but in that case I have almost no chance to take Riverrun T1. You favor getting a ship and a siege engine. Somehow I have not managed to get an advantage doing this, especially, when Mustering comes up (obviously a huge advantage for GJ). In the Mustering event: Is there even a remote chance to get and hold Rivverun?
Without Mustering: Since I am going first, I often can take Riverrun, but have trouble keeping it (due to the siege?). I also had trouble finding a win with Cersei (maybe that was with Mustering - can't remember sadly). If I hold Riverrun, I loose the Sea and maybe even Lannisport.
Could you please lay down typical T2 orders (assuming you CP in Stoney, muster in Lannisport and move a ship to Sunset) with and without a mustering card drawn? What would you muster as Lannister in case of event? Thanks a lot!

What are your thoughts on march +1 from Golden Sound to Ironmans Bay T1? If GJ does not march in port, he has to win that fight or his whole T1 is wasted. So you have a chance to grab Balon/Eureon for Hound or less. I am still unsure if I like losing a ship for getting Eureon + Sword when using Tywin for the attack.

About that +1 march: Greyjoy simply plays Aeron here and either:
a) wins with Crow's Eye + blade
b) catches you with your pants down, winning with even lower card (i.e. Theon vs Sandor)
In both cases his game is great down the line, so I find that +1 bluff terrible

About that +1 march: Greyjoy simply plays Aeron here and either:
a) wins with Crow's Eye + blade
b) catches you with your pants down, winning with even lower card (i.e. Theon vs Sandor)
In both cases his game is great down the line, so I find that +1 bluff terrible
A GJ player, who crushed me, said that he would never play Aeron early, because of the 2 CP. He feels too much need to keep the sword and possibly get stars on raven track. Was he over afraid of turn 2 or 3 clash?

Certainly he was afraid of that. 2 PTs for GJ, who does not have a very good power token generation at start, is much. As for myself, I try to use Aeron's ability when it has a significant effect (e.g. beating a Tywin, a Gregor or an Eddard that would be annoying), a minor loss is much more acceptable.

As of now, the GJ / Lanni was is very hard for Lannister, even at top level. But the meta tends to say for all others in that case they should help the Lannister to avoid a too quick sweep.

Last edited by Necrarch on 2021-Feb-10 11:20, edited 1x in total

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Judge
LoI&F: Seasons 10 and 11 King
France WCup team
2021: Bronze
2022: Silver

About that +1 march: Greyjoy simply plays Aeron here and either:
a) wins with Crow's Eye + blade
b) catches you with your pants down, winning with even lower card (i.e. Theon vs Sandor)
In both cases his game is great down the line, so I find that +1 bluff terrible
A GJ player, who crushed me, said that he would never play Aeron early, because of the 2 CP. He feels too much need to keep the sword and possibly get stars on raven track. Was he over afraid of turn 2 or 3 clash? I think he was worrying too much.
We don't know what other orders were in that particular situation, so it's impossible to analyze it properly. But there will be an upside to Aeron Damphair, for starters:
- wasting +1 march on that ship means there is no +1 march in Stoney Sept (easier to take & hold RR on Turn 1)
- if Lannister plays Tywin/Gregor, he loses a top card and one ship
- if Lannister plays Sandor, that ship retreats so it's easier kill it in following IB march
- Greyjoy is already one step closer to cycle his deck
- you solved GJ's main strategic issue on your first move ("should I go north or blast Lannister ASAP" )

As I said, the specifics depend on orders in play. This is just tip of the iceberg of possibilties (that's why I frown when people ask "what orders to play on T1-T2-T3", it depends on too many factors to answer).

Food for thought. If Lannister plays hyper-aggressive opening (3 marches, support on other ship), it means he's not getting any coins and you likely end up tied in PT (5 each). And you can still guarantee to seize & hold RR on Turn 1 with a knight and Balon, if that's your wish. On the other hand, if Lannister starts with CP*, you take Riverrun without ever needing the blade this turn right.

2 PT price tag is concerning, but:
- it's likely that GJ ends up with 5 PTs (CP port/GWW)
- Martell and Stark usually have 5 PTs, or less than that
- even if COK comes up and GJ doesn't get stars, it's not over for him; in fact, GJ sometimes wins the game without ever having a star

And one question for you.
Let's say Greyjoy played Euron, his "3rd best card" straight up, and you drew a low card to bluff him. You can play Sandor, but it's your only fort, so you have 6 cards to get his protection back. Cersei/Kevan/Tyrion cost you a ship. He has two marches left.

Did you really win that gamble?

Last edited by Jester on 2021-Feb-10 12:28, edited 1x in total

Not sure the answer was for me, but if yes:

Would tend as GJ to drop Euron straight away not to spend 2 PTs. The more PTs you have, the less precious they are, and considering their usually low PT generation, it's good for GJ not to overspend them in their early game.

If I kill the ship, all the better, if Sandor counters, not a real worry, he won't have them any more.

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Judge
LoI&F: Seasons 10 and 11 King
France WCup team
2021: Bronze
2022: Silver

Not sure the answer was for me, but if yes:

Would tend as GJ to drop Euron straight away not to spend 2 PTs. The more PTs you have, the less precious they are, and considering their usually low PT generation, it's good for GJ not to overspend them in their early game.

If I kill the ship, all the better, if Sandor counters, not a real worry, he won't have them any more.
The question was meant for tomwaitforitmy as he came up with "+1 bluff march"
You seem to agree that even Euron vs low card isn't harmful to Greyjoy - if not advantageous.

The problem with the first turn "bluff" attack on Ironman Bay is that even if you draw out Balon, your ships are routed and can be killed by even moderate strength march/card combo.  Losing Balon on Turn 1 is bad for Greyjoy, but losing both ships Turn 1 is worse for Lannister. A simple +2 defense and support in the port does a much better job of forcing Greyjoy to expend all their resources to take Golden Sound early, while protecting your ships for the following round.



Going back to the question of how to handle a Greyjoy in Riverrun on T2.  There are too many permutations to game out precisely.  But some general guidelines:

1) If there is no muster, try to use Cersei to take Riverrun back, and nullify one of Greyjoy's limited march orders.

2) If there is a muster, be more inclined to use Gregor to take a bite out of his swelled ranks.  Also start crying to the rest of the realm that you need help, because you definitely do and they should recognize that a 6-2 imbalance in troop production makes things way more skewed than they want it to be that early.

3) Use the Raven to carefully manage whether you want a support or raid in Golden Sound, to ensure that you get the most out of that space.  If there is a Clash, forget the Raven.  Your first goal is to make sure you continue to march ahead of Greyjoy (1-2 tokens is likely to be enough), and then to take the blade if there is a reasonable chance of doing so.  The blade is more valuable when you have less troops/areas to use multiple star orders on, and is especially good at countering Balon and boosting Cersei. Even if Greyjoy has 1 PT more than you, it's quite possible you have the throne now and they may blanch at a bet that will leave them with no money for stars or access to the Aeron switcheroo.  In any case, you will have cut off the worst case scenario, where they keep the blade with a modest bet and manage to get themselves a star while they're at it.

4) Don't despair too much if you can't take RR back on T2. If they can muster enough defense to stop you, it will almost certainly require them to place a raid there to nullify Stoney Sept support. In that case, at least there is no threat to your other troops or holdings, so you can focus your Raven switch on putting out a sea march that will allow you to spread some ships around Sunset Sea, which creates a greater nuisance to him than it may first appear. The more orders, turns, and cards he has to spend focusing on protecting and consolidating control over his seas, the more chances you have to get help or find an opening to land a heavy blow with the more devastating weapons in your house deck.

The problem with the first turn "bluff" attack on Ironman Bay is that even if you draw out Balon, your ships are routed and can be killed by even moderate strength march/card combo.  Losing Balon on Turn 1 is bad for Greyjoy, but losing both ships Turn 1 is worse for Lannister. A simple +2 defense and support in the port does a much better job of forcing Greyjoy to expend all their resources to take Golden Sound early, while protecting your ships for the following round. I would only attack his ship with a single ship of mine if:
* Values are exactly 2 vs 1
* He did not play any march on any ship
* He has to fear that a loss takes his turn away
If these conditions are not met, I would march into Sunset or use the Raven to replace the march with +2 defense. Did I not read in your guide, that you like to march into Sunset T1?



Going back to the question of how to handle a Greyjoy in Riverrun on T2.  There are too many permutations to game out precisely.  But some general guidelines:

1) If there is no muster, try to use Cersei to take Riverrun back, and nullify one of Greyjoy's limited march orders.

2) If there is a muster, be more inclined to use Gregor to take a bite out of his swelled ranks.  Also start crying to the rest of the realm that you need help, because you definitely do and they should recognize that a 6-2 imbalance in troop production makes things way more skewed than they want it to be that early.
I don't see a way in my games to even think about successful Gregor
if Mustering came up. You have to explain me how to make that happen . It sounds great though! I will post my games here to all over details.


3) Use the Raven to carefully manage whether you want a support or raid in Golden Sound, to ensure that you get the most out of that space.  If there is a Clash, forget the Raven.  Your first goal is to make sure you continue to march ahead of Greyjoy (1-2 tokens is likely to be enough), and then to take the blade if there is a reasonable chance of doing so.  The blade is more valuable when you have less troops/areas to use multiple star orders on, and is especially good at countering Balon and boosting Cersei. Even if Greyjoy has 1 PT more than you, it's quite possible you have the throne now and they may blanch at a bet that will leave them with no money for stars or access to the Aeron switcheroo.  In any case, you will have cut off the worst case scenario, where they keep the blade with a modest bet and manage to get themselves a star while they're at it.
Ok, thanks a lot. If you get throne and are equal in CP with GJ, you fully commit to sword? 3 Stars and Raven seems almost as tempting.


4) Don't despair too much if you can't take RR back on T2. If they can muster enough defense to stop you, it will almost certainly require them to place a raid there to nullify Stoney Sept support. In that case, at least there is no threat to your other troops or holdings, so you can focus your Raven switch on putting out a sea march that will allow you to spread some ships around Sunset Sea, which creates a greater nuisance to him than it may first appear. The more orders, turns, and cards he has to spend focusing on protecting and consolidating control over his seas, the more chances you have to get help or find an opening to land a heavy blow with the more devastating weapons in your house deck. Right, maybe it is a mental breakdown and I panic. It just seems so easy with mustering for him: Play Victarion to get Golden Sound, play Balon to get Lannisport - GGWP.

I think he was worrying too much.
We don't know what other orders were in that particular situation, so it's impossible to analyze it properly. But there will be an upside to Aeron Damphair, for starters:
- wasting +1 march on that ship means there is no +1 march in Stoney Sept (easier to take & hold RR on Turn 1)
- if Lannister plays Tywin/Gregor, he loses a top card and one ship
- if Lannister plays Sandor, that ship retreats so it's easier kill it in following IB march
- Greyjoy is already one step closer to cycle his deck
- you solved GJ's main strategic issue on your first move ("should I go north or blast Lannister ASAP" )
I see almost no value in placing march +1 in Stoney Sept. Lannister marches first, so unless you play 3 marches, GJ can easily avoid that +1. If you play 3 marches, you waste support/cp on your ship in port or you don't muster in Lannisport. You can argue, that you want to skip mustering anyway, because you want to attack with great force. To me CP* feels stronger, because after all mustering is less likely than other events. From Lannister perspective, I like to get attacked early, because Theon is much weaker attacking.


As I said, the specifics depend on orders in play. This is just tip of the iceberg of possibilties (that's why I frown when people ask "what orders to play on T1-T2-T3", it depends on too many factors to answer).

Food for thought. If Lannister plays hyper-aggressive opening (3 marches, support on other ship), it means he's not getting any coins and you likely end up tied in PT (5 each). And you can still guarantee to seize & hold RR on Turn 1 with a knight and Balon, if that's your wish. On the other hand, if Lannister starts with CP*, you take Riverrun without ever needing the blade this turn right.

2 PT price tag is concerning, but:
- it's likely that GJ ends up with 5 PTs (CP port/GWW)
- Martell and Stark usually have 5 PTs, or less than that
- even if COK comes up and GJ doesn't get stars, it's not over for him; in fact, GJ sometimes wins the game without ever having a star

And one question for you.
Let's say Greyjoy played Euron, his "3rd best card" straight up, and you drew a low card to bluff him. You can play Sandor, but it's your only fort, so you have 6 cards to get his protection back. Cersei/Kevan/Tyrion cost you a ship. He has two marches left.

Did you really win that gamble? You are right. I think I like the play from Lannister perspective if I get exactly Aeron, 2 CP and Euron. Even then I am unhappy losing my only fort.