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Necrarch
Knight of Ni

Posts: 2,053
Games: 135
Rank Points: 1,003
Member since: 2019-Feb-01

Topic: House Analysis - Lannister
Posted: 2020-Nov-20 18:15
Stats and discussion update time !

I wanted to know now what happens with additional ship for Lanni.

Win stats previously (without Ship in port):
GJ 23,8% / St 23,4% / Ba 18,3 % / Ma 13,8% / Ty 10,5% / La 10,2%

Win stats with (5k games):
St 23% / GJ 22,8% / Ba 17,8 / Ma 15,1 / Ty 10,8 / La 10,5%

The jump too fast on conclusion is : useless change.
A little less for Stark, and main increase for Martell.*

However, important thing : games with Lanni ship but without the new tiebreaker are only ~100.

What does this mean ? That the increase of chances for Lanni with the additional ship - no one will tell you that one is bad for the Lion - is compensated by the new tiebreaker.

Indeed, in case of ties, Lanni, who in case of ties used to be resolved by barrels, usually fine for the Lion, is now resolved by CLA, which is VERy bad for him.

No surprise the biggest upgrade in the to simultaneous change was in favour of Martell : they have the biggest natural land area after Stark, and Stark goes down a bit due to the fact that the additional ship in port of LP is an incentive for GJ to go North.

To sum up my thoughts, the addition of a ship is actually good for Lanni - for example for PT generation - but the tiebreaker change has been bad.

Now, still wondering how I would do a manual rebalance if I were to make new players to come at my table (and me as game master, not as a player...). Would probably try to go for "Asha / Balon strength swap" and "deletion of Widow"s Watch" (impassable territory). First one makes GJ harder, especially to defend, and sword even more important for them, second one is one barrel and one CLA less for Stark who has too easy tiebreaks as of now.  

If I were to go a step more, would like to try an "equal initial troops", that would add a ship to the three houses that start with one only: Stark with a ship in port of WF, Martell with a ship in port of Sunspear, Tyrell with a second ship in Redwyne. Won't change things dramatically, should help a bit the Tyrell especially, probably a bit harder for Bara. Have seen no major flaw or killing early moves due to that yet, helps a bit Stark and Martell to raise a CP more on turn 1 (I always hit a CoK turn 2 with these two...! ^^).

Interested in your feedbacks now !

Cheers !


Beornegar
Battle Commander

Posts: 168
Games: 235
Rank Points: 1,230
Member since: 2016-Aug-11

Topic: House Analysis - Lannister
Posted: 2020-Nov-21 00:41
I've never seen Widow's Watch deletion being suggested before. That could work pretty well. It could force Stark to be more agressive instead of turtling.

However, I might be wrong here, but if Martell would get one more ship, she could take Shipbreaker Bay first turn? Okay, Martell would be pretty volnurable after to Tyrell after that, but still.
Nomaris
Maester without a chain

Posts: 2,470
Games: 395
Rank Points: 2,625
Member since: 2017-May-19

Topic: House Analysis - Lannister
Posted: 2020-Nov-21 03:05
He would add the ship in the port, so ESS will be enpty at the start. Thus SBB is not reachable in the first round.


Beornegar
Battle Commander

Posts: 168
Games: 235
Rank Points: 1,230
Member since: 2016-Aug-11

Topic: House Analysis - Lannister
Posted: 2020-Nov-21 22:59
Ah yes, I forgot that minor detail
PMeisterGeneral
Knight

Posts: 114
Games: 141
Rank Points: 686
Member since: 2019-Apr-27

Topic: House Analysis - Lannister
Posted: 2020-Dec-12 09:27
It seems to me that if lannisport ever falls to greyjoy lannisters game is strategically lost as you then have to retake it with no navy against sea support you cannot raid


Nomaris
Maester without a chain

Posts: 2,470
Games: 395
Rank Points: 2,625
Member since: 2017-May-19

Topic: House Analysis - Lannister
Posted: 2020-Dec-12 10:37
Stoney Sept support is the key. As long as you can prevent Greyjoy from raiding it (by raiding first, or always retaking lost LP and RR in the same round), you still got a good chance to repel him.


OwnerOfTheIronThrone
Knight

Posts: 23
Games: 110
Rank Points: 743
Member since: 2018-Nov-13

Topic: House Analysis - Lannister
Posted: 2020-Dec-14 09:09
Totally agreed with PMeisterGeneral. Losing lannisport is lethal. You might still retake it and still pressure GJ in seagard, but you won't win the game for sure.
toni7100
Stonemason

Posts: 4
Games: 20
Rank Points: 41
Member since: 2017-Dec-03

Topic: House Analysis - Lannister
Posted: 2020-Dec-14 12:55
As I've written in a recent topic (Mother of Balance), do you think adding a FM in Lannisport would be too much for helping Lanni against Greyjoy or it would be balanced?
Santa Maria
Master Blacksmith

Posts: 22
Games: 67
Rank Points: 240
Member since: 2015-Sep-08

Topic: House Analysis - Lannister
Posted: 2020-Dec-14 13:26
Actually I think Greyjoy is in worse position then Lannister in midgame.

Greyjoy advantage is early muster Balon Victarion Euron backed by the BLADE and Aeron.

If Greyjoy goes peaceful with Lannister in midgame he might loose the Blade and if he doesn't have Balon or Lannister has the Blade, Lannister has a great chance to take Ironmans and then Pyke which spells doom for Greyjoy.

So Lannister backstabing Greyjoy and takin Ironmans and Pyke is much more in the air then the other way around.

Lannister usually will have 5 Kn out and placed supp in Stoney and or Searoad or HH so Greyjoy has much harder time to break but is very vulnerable to lose Ironmans.
Santa Maria
Master Blacksmith

Posts: 22
Games: 67
Rank Points: 240
Member since: 2015-Sep-08

Topic: House Analysis - Lannister
Posted: 2020-Dec-14 13:34
So as Greyjoy I would be more worried about Lannister than the other way around.

Also I play without the added Lannister ship in port, cause I think it breaks the balance.

Greyjoy needs to be dangerous early, cause if Lannister and Stark get time to develop and he looses the Blade / Balon he is in huge trouble.

So adding another Footman is too much. Actually I am against the added ship already.


Also playing Lannister is challenging in the early game which adds the fun.

Lannister is meant to be hard to play, so yes it is not an easy house to master the more rewarding the success with it.

So tryin to make every house win percentage to be equal is bad and bland.
Win percentage shows how easy it is to play the house not how strong it really is, cause I think Lannister is potentially stronger then Greyjoy but much harder to master.

For me balanced means: 'harder but stronger' vs 'easier but weaker'
Themanhasnoname
Battle Commander

Posts: 63
Games: 232
Rank Points: 1,523
Member since: 2019-Aug-11

Topic: House Analysis - Lannister
Posted: 2020-Dec-14 13:37
It is a bit early to judge but I think Lannie might be in very comfortable possition nowadays mostly because of the new tiebreaker, which gives advantage to Stark. Experienced GJ players know that in most cases they need to counter Stark to have a good chance to win. This way alliance between Lannie and GJ is natural and Lannie can have a comfortable game (if he is not teamed early by Bara and Tyrell ).
I think the low results for Lannie comes more from geographical limitations - having 5 castles is already a stretch. But in tight games in which 5 castles can grant a win, Lannie has good chances. Especially if he owns the throne almost until the very end and than put himself last to act in round 9-10.
I would bet on much better stats for Lannie next months. Myself I would always pick Lannie over Tyrell. Even before the ship and CLA tiebreaker
Ser Hodor
Son Of Hodor

Posts: 756
Games: 1,331
Rank Points: 10,054
Member since: 2016-Mar-20

Topic: House Analysis - Lannister
Posted: 2020-Dec-14 18:15
Yes, the ship alone makes conquering Lanni much, much harder for Greyjoy. I think the extent to which Greyjoy is considered OP is skewed by how their victories look.  Their wins tend to look the most lopsided, because they involve early game blitzkriegs that end the whole thing before the other houses feel like they got their feet under them.  For a long time, Stark's overall win rate was similar to Greyjoy's, but they didn't get as much attention because their wins don't involve dramatically wiping other houses off the map, but rather edging out other contenders after a full game of back-n-forth.
PMeisterGeneral
Knight

Posts: 114
Games: 141
Rank Points: 686
Member since: 2019-Apr-27

Topic: House Analysis - Lannister
Posted: 2020-Dec-26 17:35
How would you guys feel about lannisport having a strength 3 garrison purely for balance purposes? I also feel like lannister has a problem keeping up with power generation...


Santa Maria
Master Blacksmith

Posts: 22
Games: 67
Rank Points: 240
Member since: 2015-Sep-08

Topic: House Analysis - Lannister
Posted: 2020-Dec-28 12:21
Why do you want to buff Lannister at all?

2nd edition is balanced as is (without the added ship in port)

Stats only prove it cause Greyjoy happens to win about twice as much as Lannister does but it is in tolerance.
Average is 16.7% so Lannister is only 6% below and Greyjoy about 6% above.
That means Greyjoy is easier to play, and Lannister is more prone to mistakes a player makes with them. But it is alright.

Lannister is very strong house just very hard cause Greyojy can press in the beginning with Blade. But in midgame Lannister should have the upper hand.

Also I find Lannister has much better power generation then Greyjoy. Lannister has Riverun, Harrenhal, Stoney, Port and some no crown areas which is a plenty.
Don't see any problems there.
Ser Hodor
Son Of Hodor

Posts: 756
Games: 1,331
Rank Points: 10,054
Member since: 2016-Mar-20

Topic: House Analysis - Lannister
Posted: 2020-Dec-28 17:15
Lannister's power generation is vulnerable to raiding on all sides, except Stoney Sept which has to take support orders all the time.

But I agree the ship in the port is plenty to keep Lanni competitive.  They are a bit more difficult to play, but I think they are stronger than either southern house in the current set up.

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