Ser HodorSon Of HodorPosts: 753
Games: 1,331
Rank Points: 10,054
Member since: 2016-Mar-20
Topic: House Analysis - Lannister
Posted: 2023-Mar-03 23:17
Over time, I have transitioned my standard opening to a double land march + CP in port. I spread the troops out to Blackwater, Harrenhall and Riverrun.
It sometimes takes some explaining to an antsy GJ that Lannister taking Riverrun on turn 1 does not really endanger Pyke if they are also emptying Lannisport rather than mustering there. Yes, if a Muster comes up and Ironman Bay is empty, they can drop a red ship in there. But that takes one of the mustering points from Riverrun, so at most they can use the other to create a single siege engine, either there or in Lannisport. That means a max combat strength of 5, while GJ can see this coming and muster a Knight to bolster the existing garrison for 4 base defense. In the worst case scenario, you happen to draw Sea Of Storms (no raids) on top of the muster, you can get up to 8 attack str with double Ironman ships and the siege in LP. But that still does not defeat Balon/garrison/defense order/blade, so you would also have to layer in a disastrous Clash that results in Greyjoy losing the fiefdom advantage while also still lagging behind in turn order (and not having a star for a +2 defense to compensate). And as Lanni, I would have to fully commit to this highly risky mustering strategy before knowing the result of such a Clash, so I would never risk what is otherwise a perfectly solid position on it.
In any case, the point is that even I consider it safe to leave Ironman Bay open on turn 1 with Lanni in Riverrun so long as he is also moving all his troops out of Lannisport. I think most high level players understand this reasoning, but it took me a minute to figure out that if you are going this route, it is actually less threatening for Lanni to put their knight in Riverrun than a footman - because the footman can be upgraded to a siege after making a ship, but the knight cannot.