For those wondering if Lanni needs some help sometimes, I am just ending one of my most well-played Lanni games in WCup finals.

Exterminated Tyrell, played 3 successful Cersei (too bad Tyrell used QoT with his dying breath, I could have done another one), been betrayed by Grey, Martell ends up taking the loot. Result if everything ends as planned, 2 castles, 5th place. ^^

#Lannilife (and poor Tyrell, no CoK, he had no chance).

Have a look at it, it's beautiful, even if it's not successul.
https://game.thronemaster.net/?game=269410

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Judge
LoI&F: Seasons 10 and 11 King
France WCup team
2021: Bronze
2022: Silver

This means that you can’t realistically hold the Golden Sound against a determined Greyjoy. You shouldn’t cede it without a fight, and need to keep what ships you have alive as long as possible to pester the Ironborn naval forces, but if you don’t have an alliance with them the chances of you holding Golden Sound for an entire game are effectively nil.  But if you can make peace or catch enough breaks to fill Lannister’s entire land holdings, rendering Stoney support orders unraidable, then it becomes a fortress that only a very concerted effort by multiple houses, or a very unfortunate Web Of Lies, will be able to break into.  And within that fortress, you have all the supply (if not crowns) you could ask for, but more on that in a bit.
You can march+1 in Stoney Sept and to protect Riverrun,Harrenhal and Searoad Marches.

Over time, I have transitioned my standard opening to a double land march + CP in port. I spread the troops out to Blackwater, Harrenhall and Riverrun.

It sometimes takes some explaining to an antsy GJ that Lannister taking Riverrun on turn 1 does not really endanger Pyke if they are also emptying Lannisport rather than mustering there.  Yes, if a Muster comes up and Ironman Bay is empty, they can drop a red ship in there.  But that takes one of the mustering points from Riverrun, so at most they can use the other to create a single siege engine, either there or in Lannisport.  That means a max combat strength of 5, while GJ can see this coming and muster a Knight to bolster the existing garrison for 4 base defense.  In the worst case scenario, you happen to draw Sea Of Storms (no raids) on top of the muster, you can get up to 8 attack str with double Ironman ships and the siege in LP. But that still does not defeat Balon/garrison/defense order/blade, so you would also have to layer in a disastrous Clash that results in Greyjoy losing the fiefdom advantage while also still lagging behind in turn order (and not having a star for a +2 defense to compensate). And as Lanni, I would have to fully commit to this highly risky mustering strategy before knowing the result of such a Clash, so I would never risk what is otherwise a perfectly solid position on it.

In any case, the point is that even I consider it safe to leave Ironman Bay open on turn 1 with Lanni in Riverrun so long as he is also moving all his troops out of Lannisport. I think most high level players understand this reasoning, but it took me a minute to figure out that if you are going this route, it is actually less threatening for Lanni to put their knight in Riverrun than a footman - because the footman can be upgraded to a siege after making a ship, but the knight cannot.

Last edited by Ser Hodor on 2023-Mar-04 03:10, edited 1x in total

Interesting one. Tend to think it also depends on your relationship with Bara and Tyrell, to decide what's the criticality of Blackwater and Searoad.

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Judge
LoI&F: Seasons 10 and 11 King
France WCup team
2021: Bronze
2022: Silver

Over time, I have transitioned my standard opening to a double land march + CP in port. I spread the troops out to Blackwater, Harrenhall and Riverrun.

It sometimes takes some explaining to an antsy GJ that Lannister taking Riverrun on turn 1 does not really endanger Pyke if they are also emptying Lannisport rather than mustering there.  Yes, if a Muster comes up and Ironman Bay is empty, they can drop a red ship in there.  But that takes one of the mustering points from Riverrun, so at most they can use the other to create a single siege engine, either there or in Lannisport.  That means a max combat strength of 5, while GJ can see this coming and muster a Knight to bolster the existing garrison for 4 base defense.  In the worst case scenario, you happen to draw Sea Of Storms (no raids) on top of the muster, you can get up to 8 attack str with double Ironman ships and the siege in LP. But that still does not defeat Balon/garrison/defense order/blade, so you would also have to layer in a disastrous Clash that results in Greyjoy losing the fiefdom advantage while also still lagging behind in turn order (and not having a star for a +2 defense to compensate). And as Lanni, I would have to fully commit to this highly risky mustering strategy before knowing the result of such a Clash, so I would never risk what is otherwise a perfectly solid position on it.

In any case, the point is that even I consider it safe to leave Ironman Bay open on turn 1 with Lanni in Riverrun so long as he is also moving all his troops out of Lannisport. I think most high level players understand this reasoning, but it took me a minute to figure out that if you are going this route, it is actually less threatening for Lanni to put their knight in Riverrun than a footman - because the footman can be upgraded to a siege after making, but the knight cannot.
Lol that's my WCup captain Zesty18's signature opening Lanni move for those exact reasons, and I know other players are picking it up as well

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MAESTER OF TOURNAMENTS
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Interesting one. Tend to think it also depends on your relationship with Bara and Tyrell, to decide what's the criticality of Blackwater and Searoad.
My opinion is that you can never really know what your relationship is with another house on Turn 1.  All you have is what they have said, and what they do is ultimately going to be what matters.

In my games as lannister I tend to find myself comparatively poor in the middle game and end up towards the bottom of each influence track in a clash. Lannister lacks a good cp territory like castle black for instance. I've suggested before that Tywin's effect could give you 4 power tokens and still not be anywhere near broken.

Riverrun and harrenhal are raidable and stony Sept will always have a support order on it. Hard to stay afloat financially especially if holding off greyjoy or baratheon.

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Not today.

Having turn order advantage is important for this reason.  When Lanni can raid first, putting one in Blackwater protects Harrenhall.  Add in Lannisport and its port, and you have production that is alright enough.  Plus, if you have an alliance with Greyjoy, you can consistently CP in Riverrun.  It's not entirely safe, of course, but if GJ is going to betray you, they are unlikely to do it via raiding a single CP on a whim.

Alternatively, the raven allows for you to swap in CPs after confirming they will be safe (and knowing the Wildling card is often worth a several tokens in itself).  But in the longer term, the throne is much cheaper to hold on to than it.

I think lannister has been boiled down to this. T1 hope and pray greyjoy doesnt attack you. If he doesnt great! If he does ouchy. For T1 opening you either go triple consoidate power opening or move your knight to harren footman to river and blackwater. Next you need to talk to Tyrell. If Martell decides to attack Tyrell then awesome if not things get complicated. If a southern allinace occurs then you really should offer Tyrell searoad you really need to. You do NOT want to get in a war with Tyrell its awful. He will eventually break Stoney Sept support and then Blackwater will fall and then eventually Searoad will fall to Tyrell as well so you are losing Searaod anyway eventually if Tyrell decides to ally with Bara in the center of the board rather than you and once you lose those two crucial spots on the board you are done. The only way you can win in the mid game if that happens is a well timed clash and you bid really good and greyjpoy is out of balon but it almost never happens. Now to back track lets assume you are in the mid game and let Tyrell have searoad. You have Stoney Sept support and blackwater is secure what next? Well keep playing safe and try not to die it is quite hard. You will need to huddle and be patient. Always look at Greyjoy for a stab. You can also slowly huddle on Crackclaw building a addittional support hub in Harren just like stoney. After that you can move on towards Kings landing and maybe the reach late game building a support hub in blackwater but thats a dream. Possible but requires luck, patience, and of course diplomacy LOTS OF IT. The throne is extemely extemely immportant for you if you are going south. Being able to raid first is vital and marching first and using cersei is juicy. Overall look at Greyjoy in the north to see how he is doing, pray Tyrell plays nice. If Martell and Tyrell fight you could be getting ideas and keep Baratheon low he is your mortal enemy. Whichever Martell attacks you should gang up on. If Martell attacks Tyrell be wary and patient. If Martell is harassing Baratheon then harrass Baratheon for sure. Again be very cautious. Dont loose blackwater. Dont get greedy and place a consolidate power instead of a support. It is very easy to die as Lannister. The most realistic win condition strategy is (assuming you never had the chance to stab greyjoy and get pyke) Is definitely Lannisport, Riverrun, and Harrenhal. Next would be probably be Crackclaw with the massive support in Harren you set up. And then Seaguard with a well timed Cersei at the end to stop the greyjoy counter attack. That leaves you with 5 castles in the end. It honestly probably isnt enough because your land count is so bad but it is possible. Lannister is hard. Thanks for reading!

I think you the above is mostly correct, except for dealing with Tyrell.  Yes, if they have an ally, persistence and some help from the Westeros cards, they can break through Stoney Sept support and make life hard.  But a skilled and determined enemy with no other distractions can always make life hard, the game would be nothing if that were not the case.

But giving up Searoad voluntarily just makes your potential enemy stronger, and one march away from a back-breaking blow rather than two.  That is unacceptable, because part of the reason it is so easy to lose with Lannister is the lack of secure sea areas for support, reinforcement and counterattacks. To compensate, Lanni needs their land empire to be locked down tight.  It would be untenable to have Baratheon or Greyjoy one sitting next door to your capital, and with QOT and Loras, the damage potential of a backstab is doubled.  So no, never give up Searoad unless Greyjoy is already knocking down your door and you have no other options.

For some of these reasons, my first diplomatic envoy as Lannister is not to Tyrell, but Martell.  Which you get around to eventually in the post, and correctly assess that double-teaming with them is not only the most effective way to nab some extra territory, but also allows you to influence the flow of the game more in your favor.  I.e., if you know which way Martell is inclined to go, you can be the one to initiate hostilies with their target, softening them up or drawing out big cards that make it easier for Martell to strike out earlier in the game rather than turtling up for 8 rounds.  As soon as they do that, a great deal of pressure comes off you, and your options become significantly wider.

What I think you are getting to is that the options for a Lanni win are either a quick, decapitating blow at sea to Greyjoy, or slowly oozing out overland to eke out a tiebreak. The latter is doable, but it is important to be methodical and not get overambitious. You don't actually need to aim to wipe out an opponent entirely; your goal is more just to hold CCP or the Reach against steady pressure, and be in position to grab the other on the final turn.

After thinking about this some more and re reading my 7 castle analysis it's occurred to me that the primary win condition for Lannister is backstabbing greyjoy once they are fully extended up north. Ideally but not always once they've lost the blade.

One thing that has occurred to me is that greyjoy is an isolated target. No one can directly or easily come to their aid and in the event of greyjoy sailing north in the early game you should in most cases be able to lockdown the perimeter around stony Sept.

Conversely the reach can be retaken by tyrell martell and baratheon and crackclaw by baratheon stark and sometimes martell.

Best case scenario is you control stony perimeter ironmans sunset and golden sound and the game is strategically won. Bar a Web of lies it'll be hard to crack your defense and the main threat is another house getting 7 castles before you do.

To stop this happening you should aim to make the south static. Look at how Baratheon Tyrell and Martell are fighting amongst themselves and at least one will normally want to work with you to some extent. Lannister is hard, but I'm at a point where I'd genuinely love to play a lot more games with them to refine the theory further.

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Not today.

I would say I am a decent Greyjoy player (about 50% win rate over 41 rated gj games, a lot of them in tournaments) and please believe me when I say: There is always a threat for a Lannister backstab if certain combinations of Westeros cards hit the table or you suddenly have to fight 3 houses at once.

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“The only way to treat disease is to understand disease.“

One thing I've noticed in recent games is just how resilient stark are, especially if they have access to special orders. They can lose winterfel then if your backstab on greyjoy isn't entirely successful they can still bounce back to 4~5 castles and a win on CLA.

Lannister has to be careful not to backstab too early or stark can have the best of it.

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Not today.